Australian exploration expenditure reached $3.95 billion in 2024; however, discovery success rates remain stubbornly low, at less than 1 in 100 for traditional methods [5][6]. The global artificial intelligence (AI) in mining market, valued at $4.6 billion in 2023, is projected to reach $20.3 billion by 2031 at 20.5% CAGR, reflecting industry recognition that digital transformation is essential for addressing core industry challenges[1].
Meanwhile, the challenge of new project development weighs heavily, as executives balance the need for discovery with the reality that most new deposits are deeper, lower-grade, and more complex than historical finds, coupled with the increasing timeline from discovery to production. The urgency for technological innovation has never been greater. The convergence of advanced technologies including AI, advanced geophysics, quantum sensors, and data analytics presents unprecedented opportunities to revolutionise mineral discovery. However, success requires coordinated action across industry, government, and research institutions to accelerate technology adoption and overcome the sector's historically conservative approach to innovation.
Declining Copper Discovery Trends: Major copper discoveries (>3 Mt) are less common and have increased in depth over time [7]
Top of Mind for Mining Executives
Exploration is costly, and improvements in economic efficiencies are an important determinant of the viability of an exploration program. For example, automating machinery and processes, including the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), has opened access and extended exploration surveys. Other examples include automatic spectroscopic scanning of drill cores, improved airborne exploration techniques, and improved productivity, such as automated data processing[17].
Executives are grappling with intensifying operational pressures while navigating a rapidly evolving technology landscape. Data integration bottlenecks top the agenda — decades of fragmented geological datasets seek harmonisation, powered by AI to generate actionable drill targets[3][6]. The imperative to "see beneath cover" is driving investment in hyperspectral satellite imagery and fiber-optic downhole sensing, as near-surface deposits become increasingly rare[4][8].
Automation coupled with AI adoption reflects a focus on safety and cost imperatives. Earth AI's recent palladium-platinum discovery in NSW — said to be the first discovery of magmatic nickel, copper, and platinum group elements (PGEs) on Australia’s east coast and an early verified greenfield mineral discovery using AI - demonstrates AI's transformative potential, further driving executive interest in autonomous survey platforms and robotic drilling systems[9].
Meanwhile, regulatory complexity remains a critical concern and some jurisdictions are responding. South Australia's MERS digital portal promises faster permit processing by managing the entire lifecycle of regulation for the resources sector from exploration, mining licensing, lease impact assessment and management, through to regulated compliance and royalties [10], but tenure conflicts and ESG matters continue to challenge project timelines.
Funding sustainability weighs heavily and executives continue to co-fund R&D consortia and leverage government grants to maintain and boost exploration budgets. Recent evaluation of programs such as JMEI estimate that for every $1 of JMEI credit allocated, an additional $6.38 was invested via capital raisings, supporting $2.41 of greenfield exploration expenditure[11]. The technology adoption gap between majors and juniors is narrowing, with 81% of mining professionals expecting AI to impact operations within the decade, yet proven effectiveness remains a significant investment barrier[12][13].
Technology Readiness Across Innovation Horizons: Al and geophysical technologies lead in near-term deployment, while quantum technologies remain in early development
Innovations Horizon 1 (Available In-Market)
The immediate horizon for mining exploration is dominated by AI and machine learning (ML) applications that are already delivering measurable results. KoBold Metals, backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos with $537 million in Series C funding, exemplifies this transformation by achieving a 95% accuracy rate in predicting likely deposit locations through pattern recognition algorithms. Their approach processes satellite imagery, geophysical surveys, and drilling results 100 times faster than traditional methods, and more recently has led to significant discoveries in Zambia's copper belt[14].
● AI/ML Platforms dominate near-term deployments, with companies achieving dramatic efficiency gains. Goldspot Discoveries integrates geological, geophysical, and satellite data into "Smart Targets," while Minerva Intelligence's DRIVER platform delivers cloud-based 3D AI modelling for domain-based estimation. Earth AI combines global geological archives with low-disturbance drilling robotics, achieving 1 in 8 discovery success - 25× industry average - for molybdenum and nickel-copper-PGE exploration.
● Advanced geophysical technology developments represent another innovation domain ready for widespread deployment. Ivanhoe Electric's Typhoon™ system demonstrates breakthrough capability, utilising high-power transmitters to penetrate five times deeper than conventional instruments. The technology successfully identified copper mineralisation at 1,059 meters depth at their Santa Cruz Project, confirming its potential to detect previously undetectable deposits. BHP's strategic alliance with Ivanhoe Electric, investing $15 million over three years, validates the viability of this approach.
● Real-time drilling optimisation technologies are revolutionising the industry's most expensive exploration activity. MinEx CRC's RoXplorer coiled tubing drilling system, now commercially available through DIG CT, reduces environmental impact while enabling continuous drilling to 500-metre depths. Companies like Krux Analytics provide real-time data collection that increases drilling speed and accuracy, while IMDEX's COREVIBE™ and MAGHAMMER™ technologies optimise drilling processes by increasing penetration rates and reducing overall costs.
● Satellite based solutions such as Fleet Space Technologies enable rapid 3D mapping, compressing traditional exploration cycles and timeframes.
● Digital Twin Integration is also accelerating. CSIRO Mineral Resources and Rio Tinto Centre for Mine Automation partnerships are enabling virtual exploration scenario testing. VRIFY provides 3D interactive visualisations for real-time stakeholder engagement.
Innovations Horizon 2 (In-Market 5-10 Years)
The 10-year innovation horizon is shifting toward fully autonomous exploration systems that will fundamentally reshape how mineral discovery operates. Current development programs by major mining companies and technology partners are advancing towards integrated UAV swarms capable of conducting comprehensive geophysical surveys without human intervention. These systems will combine magnetometry, electromagnetic sensors, and ground-penetrating radar in coordinated flights, dramatically reducing survey costs and timeline.
● Quantum Sensing Networks represent the next frontier. DeteQt (University of Sydney spin-out) commercialising diamond-on-silicon quantum magnetometers for subterranean imaging. Leibniz-IPHT advances SQUID and OPM magnetometers capable of detecting minute magnetic and gravitational anomalies with centimeter-scale resolution, enabling non-invasive deep target identification.
● Autonomous Vehicle Swarms are evolving through QUT's Centre for Robotics and METS partnerships, deploying UAV networks with edge-AI for continuous geophysical surveys in GPS-denied terrains. Ground-based robotic systems will provide 24/7 operation capabilities while reducing field crew requirements and safety risks.
● Physics-Informed Digital Twins advancing via ARC Linkage projects at UTS and UNSW, aim to deliver real-time coupling of sensor data with physics-based models for dynamic prospectivity updates. UWA's Centre for Data-driven Geoscience contributes AI-augmented geological interpretation with transparent, explainable workflows building end-user trust.
● Integrated Multi-Sensor Fusion Platforms through AuScope and state geological surveys will deliver live integration of satellite, airborne, and ground-sensor feeds, automating subtle alteration footprint detection beneath cover sequences.
● Collaborative government-driven partnerships are fast-tracking testing and development. MOSMIN, the multiscale observation service for mining-related deposits is funded by EU Agency for the Space Programme and has a goal to develop satellite-based vertically integrated services that address the challenges of raw materials. The consortium is using pilot sites on different continents to develop and trial comprehensive integrated exploration and monitoring services[15].
Innovations Horizon 3 (In-Market 10-15 Years)
The 15-year horizon introduces quantum computing applications that will revolutionise complex geological modelling and resource estimation. McKinsey projects quantum technology will generate up to $97 billion in revenue by 2035, with quantum computing capturing the majority through applications in chemistry, materials science, and fluid dynamics modelling[16]. In mining, this translates to a wide range of applications across the mineral value chain, such as designing new catalysts for more efficient metal extraction from lower-grade ores and simulating complex fluid dynamics in tailings systems to prevent failures.
● Fully integrated AI-human collaboration platforms will emerge, where artificial intelligence systems work seamlessly with geologists to process vast datasets and generate exploration hypotheses. These systems will incorporate natural language processing capabilities to analyse decades of exploration reports, academic literature, and geological databases, creating comprehensive knowledge repositories that continuously learn and improve prediction accuracy.
● Space-Based Resource Extraction pioneers like Karman+, AstroForge, and TransAstra are designing spacecraft and optical-mining systems for near-Earth asteroid prospecting. Initial focus centres on water and high-grade metal extraction with in-situ resource utilisation (ISRU) capabilities, potentially revolutionising discovery paradigms.
● Deep-Seabed Autonomous Systems led by The Metals Company and Global Sea Mineral Resources plan full-scale autonomous harvesters with AI-guided "picker" arms for selective polymetallic nodule collection. Partnership with Allseas aims to minimise ecological disturbance while accessing vast seabed mineral reserves under emerging ISA Mining Code frameworks.
● Nanotech Sensor Networks represent emerging monitoring solutions. Borehole-deployed, self-powered sensor arrays creating subterranean IoT meshes for continuous 4D geological modelling. These systems promise real-time multi-parameter monitoring potential with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution.
● Suborbital Hyperspectral Constellations will deliver dedicated micro-satellite networks offering daily revisit rates for dynamic surface and subsurface change detection. Synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) integration enables all-weather, day-night monitoring capabilities.
Case Study – Models to accelerate advanced technology adoption
Unique collaboration models are leading to some important advances in both technology and data applications. The BHP Xplor program is one example, a ‘global accelerator’ to support innovative early-stage mineral exploration companies to upskill and fast-track discovery of minerals critical to the energy transition. The program is open to candidates globally, from first-time entrepreneurs to mature teams and companies[18].
- The program runs over six months and includes ‘camps’ with workshops and masterclasses, site visits, a showcase event, and monthly touchpoints to support participants towards the commercialisation of their product or solution. Benefits of the program for the selected companies include:
- A US$0.5 million equity-free grant to spend on exploration work program.
- Connection and pitch opportunity with BHP’s leading experts to secure additional funding.
- Access to BHP’s extensive network of vendors and service providers.
- A workshop and masterclass program with a curated exploration curriculum that improves a participant’s understanding of leading practice.
- The opportunity to join and collaborate with a growing global community of Xplor members.
The Pulse of Policymakers
Governments worldwide are calibrating innovation enablement with environmental stewardship and community consent. Australia leads through Geoscience Australia initiatives, and examples such as the Mining Amendment Bill 2025 and State-based MERS digital portal rollout, targeting 20-30% permit timeline reductions while codifying Native Title and heritage safeguards. Federal and State investment continues around exploration and technology incentives, with various critical-minerals R&D funding under consideration and development.
Internationally, the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act mandates 10% domestic sourcing by 2030, while the U.S. Executive Order 14241 establishes a National Energy Dominance Council for critical-minerals coordination. Both frameworks are incentivising fast-track permitting for projects adopting advanced, low-impact technologies, creating powerful incentives for innovation adoption.
Regulatory sandboxes emerge as key policy tools. Grant co-funding schemes, tax credits, and streamlined approval pathways to de-risk technology demonstrations while enforcing robust ESG and data-transparency mandates. Novel exploration domains are emerging, for example the ISA Mining Code for seabed resources remains under negotiation, requiring environmental baseline compliance and public consultation protocols.
Global collaborations include the International Geoscientific Programme (IGCP), which is run by UNESCO as a knowledge hub to facilitate international scientific cooperation in geoscience. It is partnered with the International Union of Geological Science (IUGS) to foster cooperation and collaboration. In 2024, IGCP funded 25 research projects, including the Geoscience Ecosystem (GECO)[19].
Policymakers increasingly leverage public-private partnerships, with government labs co-developing solutions alongside METS firms and mining majors. This collaborative approach balances innovation promotion with responsible resource development, ensuring technological advances align with national strategic interests and environmental protection goals.
Conclusion
The exploration and discovery segment faces unprecedented transformation driven by technological convergence and market pressures. Success requires orchestrating balanced innovation portfolios - deploying Horizon 1 AI and ML solutions immediately, piloting Horizon 2 optimisation and automation technologies, while investing in Horizon 3 quantum and swarm technologies. Strategic partnerships with METS innovators, research institutions, and non-traditional players are essential for risk-sharing and accelerated deployment.
The evidence is compelling: exploration enhanced by advanced technologies offers potential for 10-20% success rates versus traditional methods' <1%, while reducing costs by 30-50% and discovery timelines by 60-75%[20].
With the global AI mining market growing at 20.5% CAGR, companies that embrace digital transformation today will dominate tomorrow's mineral supply chains. Proactive engagement with evolving regulatory frameworks - leveraging fast-track permits, tax incentives, and regulatory sandboxes - will unlock competitive advantages while ensuring sustainable development practices. The industry stands at a crossroads where technological leadership will determine which companies secure the critical and strategic minerals underpinning the global energy transition.
Sources
[1] Exploration statistics | Geoscience Australia https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/minerals/investing-in-australian-mineral-exploration/exploration-statistics
[2] Global Mine-Site Technology Adoption Survey 2020: Assess the Current Adoption Rates for 13 Key Technologies - ResearchAndMarkets.com https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210118005463/en/Global-Mine-Site-Technology-Adoption-Survey-2020-Assess-the-Current-Adoption-Rates-for-13-Key-Technologies---ResearchAndMarkets.com
[3] Expenditure rates - Resources Victoria https://resources.vic.gov.au/legislation-and-regulations/compliance-enforcement/reporting-expenditure/expenditure-rates
[4] AI Applications In Mineral Exploration: 2025 Top Trends - Farmonaut https://farmonaut.com/mining/ai-applications-in-mineral-exploration-2025-top-trends
[5] Mineral Exploration: 2025 Tech For Sustainable Mining - Farmonaut https://farmonaut.com/mining/mineral-exploration-2025-tech-for-sustainable-mining
[6] Global Mine-Site Technology Adoption Survey 2022: Current Adoption Rates of 13 Key Technologies - ResearchAndMarkets.com https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220512005615/en/Global-Mine-Site-Technology-Adoption-Survey-2022-Current-Adoption-Rates-of-13-Key-Technologies---ResearchAndMarkets.com
[7] Henry, M., BHP - Presentation to Bank of America Securities 2023 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference, 2023 https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2023/230516_bofapresentation.pdf
[8] How Much is the Cost of Mining Exploration - 911Metallurgist https://www.911metallurgist.com/blog/much-cost-mining-exploration/
[9] Legacy Minerals, Earth AI use AI to unearth palladium in Australia
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/legacy-minerals-earth-ai/?cf-view
[10] Mining Exploration and Regulation System (MERS)
[11] Minerals Council Backs Coalition’s Plan To Reinstate Exploration Incentive
[12] How AI Transforms Mineral Exploration Success Rates in 2025 https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/ai-enhance-mineral-exploration-success-2025/
[13] Global Mine-Site Technology Adoption Survey 2023 Update: 150 Individual Mines Interviewed - ResearchAndMarkets.com https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230607005711/en/Global-Mine-Site-Technology-Adoption-Survey-2023-Update-150-Individual-Mines-Interviewed---ResearchAndMarkets.com
[14] Gates, Bezos-backed KoBold Metals raises $537 million in race for critical minerals
[15] European Union Agency for Space Programme, MOSMIN Multiscale observation services for mining-related deposits https://www.euspa.europa.eu/opportunities/horizon/project-portfolio/mosmin-multiscale-observation-services-mining-related-deposits
[16] The Year of Quantum: From concept to reality in 2025
[17] ICAA Roadmap to Zero : Discovery
[18] BHP Xplor program
https://www.bhp.com/about/our-businesses/xplor
[19] UNESCO, IGCP announces funding for 25 research projects this year
[20] Mining Time Delay: From Discovery to Development Challenges
https://discoveryalert.com.au/news
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