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By 18 September the metal was heading for its 11th weekly gain in 12 weeks, as renewed Chinese demand outweighed hawkish Fed messaging.\nThe rally continued into this week. Prices rose for a sixth straight session on Tuesday 22 September, driven by tight mine supply and Chinese buying. COMEX reached an all-time high equivalent to about US$15,060/t (US$15.06/kg). \nOn Wednesday, copper fell as much as 0.8% on the LME, ending the six-day run as Fed officials signalled concern about inflation and the possibility of further tightening. COMEX closed Wednesday near US$14,860/t (US$14.86/kg), still almost 42% higher than a year earlier.\nMacro and Policy Themes\nThe US tariff decision on refined copper is still the largest unresolved variable. The Commerce Department has proposed duties of 15% from January 2027 and 30% from 2028, and these still await a presidential decision. The January start date matters now. \nAs year-end nears, importers must choose between pulling metal into the US ahead of the tariffs or holding back. That choice will keep affecting COMEX premiums and inventory flows.\nInterest rates are the second pressure point. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said inflationary shocks could take time to fade, and other officials have also suggested more tightening may be needed. A firmer US dollar has capped each recent rally. For Australian producers, however, the A$ copper price remains historically high, which supports margins.\nInventories\nExchange stocks point to tightness where physical demand is strongest. On 22 September, LME stocks fell 1,625 t to 254,250 t, and spot traded slightly above three-month metal. \nShanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks are down about 70% since early June. Only 133,725 t of LME metal is freely available, with cancelled warrants making up 48% of the total. COMEX stocks, by contrast, continue to build on tariff-driven accumulation, so headline global inventory figures overstate how much metal is available.\nChina\nChinese demand has strengthened ahead of the National Day holiday. The Yangshan import premium finished last week at US$124/t, its highest in almost four years, then eased to US$119/t on Monday. \nMuch of the newly imported metal is going straight to fabricators instead of warehouses, which keeps spot supply tight. Several Chinese refineries have planned maintenance between October and November, so refined output is unlikely to rise sharply. The main near-term risk is that buyers pull back after the holiday if prices stay near record levels.\nPrices: Analyst Outlook\nGoldman Sachs    US$13,735/t (US$13.74/kg) by end-2026\nMorgan Stanley    ~600,000 t deficit in 2027\nWood Mackenzie    US$13,200–13,800/t (US$13.20–13.80/kg)\nCRU    Close to balance, excluding US stock movements\nTrading Economics    ~US$14,620/t (US$14.62/kg) by end-Q3\nMost institutional forecasts sit below current spot prices. This suggests the market is still carrying a premium for policy and supply risk. That premium could narrow quickly if the tariff decision is clarified or the Fed turns more hawkish.\nSupply and Demand Outlook\nThe supply side is not improving. Sprott expects global mined output to fall this year for the first time since 2017, despite record prices. Global mine production declined 1.1% in the first half, and disruptions in Indonesia and the DRC have removed an estimated 600,000 t from expected annual output.\nBenchmark treatment and refining charges are at zero for 2026, which keeps smelter margins under pressure. Demand from power grids, AI data centres and defence remains strong.\nFor the week ahead, the key signals are:\n•    how China trades after the National Day holiday\n•    any statement from Washington on refined copper tariffs\n•    US inflation data and Fed commentary\n•    whether LME drawdowns continue\nThe medium-term balance still points to a deficit. In the short term, expect volatility around record levels rather than a steady move higher.\nConnectOre\nHaulage Electrification – Did You Know?\nAround 28,000 large haul trucks are in service worldwide, and almost all of them run on diesel. Diesel mobile equipment produces 30–50% of a mine's Scope 1 emissions, and up to 80% at some sites. Yet the electricity to run a battery-electric truck costs about one-third as much as the diesel equivalent. As ore grades decline, haulage demand could grow 125% by 2050 without technology intervention. Industry collaboration has already pulled zero-emission haul trucks at scale forward to 2030, a decade earlier than expected.\nThe Truck Was Never the Hard Part\nDrivetrains and truck platforms have matured, so the challenge has moved elsewhere. The constraints now sit in the wider system:\n•    getting energy into the truck\n•    renewable power supply\n•    grid capacity\n•    the timing of fleet renewal\n•    policy settings\nBattery cell chemistry determines how far and how fast a truck can work. The industry is now proving that no single operator can de-risk this alone.\nIn December 2025, competitors BHP and Rio Tinto shared a trial site, supply chain and learnings with Caterpillar in the Pilbara. For smaller producers, pooling demand through consortia opens up technology that no mid-tier operator could reach on its own.\nIf you would like to see innovation spotlights on new cell chemistries, please refer to future reports on this ConnectOre site\nSources\n•    Bloomberg, copper market reports, 18, 21, 22 and 23 September 2026\n•    Trading Economics, Copper, 23 September 2026\n•    Reuters via Business Recorder, 14 September 2026\n•    The Rio Times, LatAm copper markets, 23 September 2026\n•    LME, SHFE and COMEX inventory data\n•    International Copper Study Group; Sprott Asset Management\n•    Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie, CRU\n","text":"\n**Market Overview**\n\nCopper climbed back to record territory this week, then eased as the Federal Reserve outlook took over. The rebound followed a sharp mid-month correction. \nOn 14 September, LME three-month copper dropped to a session low of US$14,018.50/t, its weakest level since 20 August. It later touched US$13,958/t (US$13.96/kg), about 6% below the 10 September record of US$14,875/t (US$14.88/kg). That dip drew buyers. By 18 September the metal was heading for its 11th weekly gain in 12 weeks, as renewed Chinese demand outweighed hawkish Fed messaging.\n\nThe rally continued into this week. Prices rose for a sixth straight session on Tuesday 22 September, driven by tight mine supply and Chinese buying. COMEX reached an all-time high equivalent to about US$15,060/t (US$15.06/kg). \n\nOn Wednesday, copper fell as much as 0.8% on the LME, ending the six-day run as Fed officials signalled concern about inflation and the possibility of further tightening. COMEX closed Wednesday near US$14,860/t (US$14.86/kg), still almost 42% higher than a year earlier.\n\n**Macro and Policy Themes**\n\nThe US tariff decision on refined copper is still the largest unresolved variable. The Commerce Department has proposed duties of 15% from January 2027 and 30% from 2028, and these still await a presidential decision. The January start date matters now. \n\nAs year-end nears, importers must choose between pulling metal into the US ahead of the tariffs or holding back. That choice will keep affecting COMEX premiums and inventory flows.\n\nInterest rates are the second pressure point. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said inflationary shocks could take time to fade, and other officials have also suggested more tightening may be needed. A firmer US dollar has capped each recent rally. For Australian producers, however, the A$ copper price remains historically high, which supports margins.\n\n**Inventories**\n\nExchange stocks point to tightness where physical demand is strongest. On 22 September, LME stocks fell 1,625 t to 254,250 t, and spot traded slightly above three-month metal. \n\nShanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks are down about 70% since early June. Only 133,725 t of LME metal is freely available, with cancelled warrants making up 48% of the total. COMEX stocks, by contrast, continue to build on tariff-driven accumulation, so headline global inventory figures overstate how much metal is available.\n\n**China**\n\nChinese demand has strengthened ahead of the National Day holiday. The Yangshan import premium finished last week at US$124/t, its highest in almost four years, then eased to US$119/t on Monday. \n\nMuch of the newly imported metal is going straight to fabricators instead of warehouses, which keeps spot supply tight. Several Chinese refineries have planned maintenance between October and November, so refined output is unlikely to rise sharply. The main near-term risk is that buyers pull back after the holiday if prices stay near record levels.\n\n**Prices: Analyst Outlook**\n\n\nGoldman Sachs\tUS$13,735/t (US$13.74/kg) by end-2026\nMorgan Stanley\t~600,000 t deficit in 2027\nWood Mackenzie\tUS$13,200–13,800/t (US$13.20–13.80/kg)\nCRU\tClose to balance, excluding US stock movements\nTrading Economics\t~US$14,620/t (US$14.62/kg) by end-Q3\n\nMost institutional forecasts sit below current spot prices. This suggests the market is still carrying a premium for policy and supply risk. That premium could narrow quickly if the tariff decision is clarified or the Fed turns more hawkish.\n\n**Supply and Demand Outlook**\n\nThe supply side is not improving. Sprott expects global mined output to fall this year for the first time since 2017, despite record prices. Global mine production declined 1.1% in the first half, and disruptions in Indonesia and the DRC have removed an estimated 600,000 t from expected annual output.\nBenchmark treatment and refining charges are at zero for 2026, which keeps smelter margins under pressure. Demand from power grids, AI data centres and defence remains strong.\n\n**For the week ahead, the key signals are:**\n\n•\thow China trades after the National Day holiday\n•\tany statement from Washington on refined copper tariffs\n•\tUS inflation data and Fed commentary\n•\twhether LME drawdowns continue\n\nThe medium-term balance still points to a deficit. In the short term, expect volatility around record levels rather than a steady move higher.\n\n**ConnectOre**\n\n**Haulage Electrification – Did You Know?**\n\nAround 28,000 large haul trucks are in service worldwide, and almost all of them run on diesel. Diesel mobile equipment produces 30–50% of a mine's Scope 1 emissions, and up to 80% at some sites. Yet the electricity to run a battery-electric truck costs about one-third as much as the diesel equivalent. As ore grades decline, haulage demand could grow 125% by 2050 without technology intervention. Industry collaboration has already pulled zero-emission haul trucks at scale forward to 2030, a decade earlier than expected.\n\n**The Truck Was Never the Hard Part**\n\nDrivetrains and truck platforms have matured, so the challenge has moved elsewhere. The constraints now sit in the wider system:\n•\tgetting energy into the truck\n•\trenewable power supply\n•\tgrid capacity\n•\tthe timing of fleet renewal\n•\tpolicy settings\n\nBattery cell chemistry determines how far and how fast a truck can work. The industry is now proving that no single operator can de-risk this alone.\nIn December 2025, competitors BHP and Rio Tinto shared a trial site, supply chain and learnings with Caterpillar in the Pilbara. For smaller producers, pooling demand through consortia opens up technology that no mid-tier operator could reach on its own.\n\nIf you would like to see innovation spotlights on new cell chemistries, please refer to future reports on this ConnectOre site\n\n**Sources**\n•\tBloomberg, copper market reports, 18, 21, 22 and 23 September 2026\n•\tTrading Economics, Copper, 23 September 2026\n•\tReuters via Business Recorder, 14 September 2026\n•\tThe Rio Times, LatAm copper markets, 23 September 2026\n•\tLME, SHFE and COMEX inventory data\n•\tInternational Copper Study Group; Sprott Asset Management\n•\tGoldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie, CRU\n\n"},"openGraph":{"title":"Copper Weekly Brief – Week Ending 25 September 2026","description":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief - 25th September 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":{"name":"Terms of Use","title":null,"slug":"terms-of-use","path":"/terms-of-use"},"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-07-31T04:44:47.80","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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