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This leaves copper below the brief May spike above 14,000 USD/t but still at historically elevated levels, with price action suggesting a market that is consolidating rather than reversing as supply constraints continue to offset softer macro indicators.\nPrice drivers and near-term outlook\nThe most credible medium-term support for copper still comes from structural supply analysis rather than short-term macro momentum. As referenced in the 12 June brief, UBS lifted its medium-term deck to 6.0 USD/lb for 2027–29 and its long-term incentive price to 5.50 USD/lb, or about 12,100 USD/t and 12.1 USD/kg, arguing that this is the level needed to unlock 6–7 Mt of additional mine supply by 2035. That framing remains broadly consistent with CRU and Wood Mackenzie thinking cited in recent market coverage: project pipelines are not keeping pace with expected demand growth, ore grades are declining, and new supply is becoming more capital-intensive and slower to permit. The significance of that consensus is that even if near-term growth indicators weaken, the industry is still facing a constrained medium-term supply response.\nIn the near term, the main physical drivers remain tight concentrate availability, uneven scrap supply, and lingering disruption risk at mine level, while demand is still being underpinned by power grid investment, electrification and data-centre buildout. Wood Mackenzie cost-curve work cited in the 12 June brief also indicates that current prices remain well above the 90th–95th percentile fully loaded cost curve of around 3.5–4.0 USD/lb, meaning most incumbent operations remain strongly cash generative even as new projects face much tougher capital discipline. The practical implication is that copper is unlikely to collapse absent a major global demand shock, but it may continue to trade in a broad range while the market waits for clearer evidence on China demand, US policy and the timing of new project approvals.\nGeopolitics, war and policy\nThe most important geopolitical change this week is that the immediate war premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz has started to unwind. Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump’s interim agreement with Iran has taken effect, shifting market focus toward the resumption of shipping through the Strait and a 60-day negotiation period over Tehran’s nuclear program, while Reuters reported that oil fell sharply after the announcement that hostilities would cease and shipping would resume. For copper, that does not remove geopolitical risk, but it does reduce the probability of an acute energy shock feeding straight through into freight, smelting costs and cross-commodity volatility over the next several weeks.\nOver the next few months, the likely effect is a transition from war-driven volatility to policy-driven differentiation. If Hormuz remains open and crude prices stabilise, copper should increasingly trade on mine supply, inventory trends, Chinese demand and US industrial policy rather than on immediate Middle East disruption headlines. That would normally be mildly supportive for producer planning, because lower energy volatility helps smelters, shipping and procurement, but it also means the market’s attention is likely to return quickly to the harder unresolved issue: whether global policy settings are actually sufficient to accelerate new copper supply.\nThat policy question remains central for mining companies. The 12 June brief noted that US trade measures, including the pending Section 232 pathway and earlier tariff proposals for imported refined copper, have already widened COMEX-LME spreads and encouraged pre-emptive US restocking. Even if Middle East tensions ease further, those policy settings are still likely to distort regional metal flows, keep US prices relatively elevated and sustain investor interest in domestic or politically aligned copper supply chains. In practice, miners with exposure to stable jurisdictions, scalable brownfield growth and strong permitting capability are likely to remain better positioned than projects requiring high sovereign-risk tolerance or very long construction timelines.\nThe broader forecast for the copper mining industry over the balance of 2026 is therefore constructive but more selective. The easing in war risk should remove one source of macro stress, yet it is unlikely to change the structural reality that too few quality copper projects are advancing quickly enough. That points to a market in which price spikes may moderate, but quality copper assets, development-ready pipelines and proven operators should continue to command strategic value.\nImplications for mining companies\nFor producers, current benchmarks remain highly supportive: LME cash near 13,735.50 USD/t and COMEX around 14,050 USD/t leave most existing copper mines operating with strong margins relative to the upper end of the industry cost curve cited in the previous brief. The main issue is not near-term profitability but the cost, timing and execution risk of replacing depleted supply with new tonnes at scale.\nSupply, demand and price metrics (USD/t and USD/kg)\nUsing current and forecast benchmarks, the key reference points are:\n•    Spot LME official price, 18 June 2026: 13,735.50 USD/t, equivalent to 13.74 USD/kg.\n•    COMEX copper via Trading Economics, 18 June 2026: about 6.37 USD/lb, or roughly 14,050 USD/t and 14.05 USD/kg.\n•    UBS CIO forecasts, as cited in the 12 June brief: September 2026 at 14,000 USD/t (14.0 USD/kg), December 2026 at 14,500 USD/t (14.5 USD/kg), March 2027 at 15,000 USD/t (15.0 USD/kg), and June 2027 at 15,500 USD/t (15.5 USD/kg).\n•    UBS long-term incentive price: 5.50 USD/lb, approximately 12,125 USD/t and 12.1 USD/kg.\nThese price levels remain well above the cost support referenced in Wood Mackenzie-derived analysis, reinforcing the view that the current market continues to reward incumbent production while challenging the economics and execution of future supply growth.\nConnectOre\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital platform for technology insights, project case studies and emerging research across the copper value chain, with a particular focus on zero-emissions mining and processing solutions. By combining member-contributed knowledge with its Copper AI engine, it is intended to shorten the path from innovation to deployment at mine and plant level.\nGo to https://connectore.org \n","text":"\nJune 19, 2026 · Mining\n\n**Market overview**\n\n Copper traded through the week-ending 19 June in the upper 13,000 USD/t range on the LME, with the official LME cash price at 13,735.50 USD/t on 18 June, equivalent to 13.74 USD/kg, while Trading Economics tracked COMEX copper futures remained around 6.37 USD/lb, or roughly 14,050 USD/t and 14.05 USD/kg, preserving a clear US premium over the London benchmark. This leaves copper below the brief May spike above 14,000 USD/t but still at historically elevated levels, with price action suggesting a market that is consolidating rather than reversing as supply constraints continue to offset softer macro indicators.\n\n**Price drivers and near-term outlook**\n\nThe most credible medium-term support for copper still comes from structural supply analysis rather than short-term macro momentum. As referenced in the 12 June brief, UBS lifted its medium-term deck to 6.0 USD/lb for 2027–29 and its long-term incentive price to 5.50 USD/lb, or about 12,100 USD/t and 12.1 USD/kg, arguing that this is the level needed to unlock 6–7 Mt of additional mine supply by 2035. That framing remains broadly consistent with CRU and Wood Mackenzie thinking cited in recent market coverage: project pipelines are not keeping pace with expected demand growth, ore grades are declining, and new supply is becoming more capital-intensive and slower to permit. The significance of that consensus is that even if near-term growth indicators weaken, the industry is still facing a constrained medium-term supply response.\nIn the near term, the main physical drivers remain tight concentrate availability, uneven scrap supply, and lingering disruption risk at mine level, while demand is still being underpinned by power grid investment, electrification and data-centre buildout. Wood Mackenzie cost-curve work cited in the 12 June brief also indicates that current prices remain well above the 90th–95th percentile fully loaded cost curve of around 3.5–4.0 USD/lb, meaning most incumbent operations remain strongly cash generative even as new projects face much tougher capital discipline. The practical implication is that copper is unlikely to collapse absent a major global demand shock, but it may continue to trade in a broad range while the market waits for clearer evidence on China demand, US policy and the timing of new project approvals.\n\n**Geopolitics, war and policy**\n\nThe most important geopolitical change this week is that the immediate war premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz has started to unwind. Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump’s interim agreement with Iran has taken effect, shifting market focus toward the resumption of shipping through the Strait and a 60-day negotiation period over Tehran’s nuclear program, while Reuters reported that oil fell sharply after the announcement that hostilities would cease and shipping would resume. For copper, that does not remove geopolitical risk, but it does reduce the probability of an acute energy shock feeding straight through into freight, smelting costs and cross-commodity volatility over the next several weeks.\n\nOver the next few months, the likely effect is a transition from war-driven volatility to policy-driven differentiation. If Hormuz remains open and crude prices stabilise, copper should increasingly trade on mine supply, inventory trends, Chinese demand and US industrial policy rather than on immediate Middle East disruption headlines. That would normally be mildly supportive for producer planning, because lower energy volatility helps smelters, shipping and procurement, but it also means the market’s attention is likely to return quickly to the harder unresolved issue: whether global policy settings are actually sufficient to accelerate new copper supply.\nThat policy question remains central for mining companies. The 12 June brief noted that US trade measures, including the pending Section 232 pathway and earlier tariff proposals for imported refined copper, have already widened COMEX-LME spreads and encouraged pre-emptive US restocking. Even if Middle East tensions ease further, those policy settings are still likely to distort regional metal flows, keep US prices relatively elevated and sustain investor interest in domestic or politically aligned copper supply chains. In practice, miners with exposure to stable jurisdictions, scalable brownfield growth and strong permitting capability are likely to remain better positioned than projects requiring high sovereign-risk tolerance or very long construction timelines.\n\nThe broader forecast for the copper mining industry over the balance of 2026 is therefore constructive but more selective. The easing in war risk should remove one source of macro stress, yet it is unlikely to change the structural reality that too few quality copper projects are advancing quickly enough. That points to a market in which price spikes may moderate, but quality copper assets, development-ready pipelines and proven operators should continue to command strategic value.\n\n**Implications for mining companies**\n\nFor producers, current benchmarks remain highly supportive: LME cash near 13,735.50 USD/t and COMEX around 14,050 USD/t leave most existing copper mines operating with strong margins relative to the upper end of the industry cost curve cited in the previous brief. The main issue is not near-term profitability but the cost, timing and execution risk of replacing depleted supply with new tonnes at scale.\n\n**Supply, demand and price metrics (USD/t and USD/kg)**\n\nUsing current and forecast benchmarks, the key reference points are:\n\n•\tSpot LME official price, 18 June 2026: 13,735.50 USD/t, equivalent to 13.74 USD/kg.\n•\tCOMEX copper via Trading Economics, 18 June 2026: about 6.37 USD/lb, or roughly 14,050 USD/t and 14.05 USD/kg.\n•\tUBS CIO forecasts, as cited in the 12 June brief: September 2026 at 14,000 USD/t (14.0 USD/kg), December 2026 at 14,500 USD/t (14.5 USD/kg), March 2027 at 15,000 USD/t (15.0 USD/kg), and June 2027 at 15,500 USD/t (15.5 USD/kg).\n•\tUBS long-term incentive price: 5.50 USD/lb, approximately 12,125 USD/t and 12.1 USD/kg.\n\nThese price levels remain well above the cost support referenced in Wood Mackenzie-derived analysis, reinforcing the view that the current market continues to reward incumbent production while challenging the economics and execution of future supply growth.\n\n**ConnectOre**\n\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital platform for technology insights, project case studies and emerging research across the copper value chain, with a particular focus on zero-emissions mining and processing solutions. By combining member-contributed knowledge with its Copper AI engine, it is intended to shorten the path from innovation to deployment at mine and plant level.\nGo to https://connectore.org \n\n"},"openGraph":{"title":null,"description":{"plain":"This weekly Copper Briefing provides a market update on the global market for Copper fo the week to 19th June 2026\n"},"image":{"thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1781836311/copper-connect/banner/copper-weekly-brief-19th-june-2026_image__Copper_brief_image_19062026_fv7l0d.png"}}}},"intro":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief — Week Ending 19 June 2026\n","text":"Copper Weekly Brief — Week Ending 19 June 2026"},"outro":{"id":"6a34a887b00f459cc383fbc8_outro","text":""},"videos":[],"imageAssets":[],"organisations":[],"people":[],"embeds":{"citations":[],"pages":[],"people":[],"imageAssets":[]},"banners":[{"id":"6a34aa3fb00f459cc383fbd4","name":"Copper Weekly Brief - 19th June 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":null,"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-04-21T01:12:58.42","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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