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LME stocks fell 13,425 t over the week to 235,225 t.\nIn Australian dollar terms, LME copper is around A$20,900/t.\nMarket overview\nThree forces drove copper this week: softer US rate expectations, China's return and Chilean strike risk. September US payrolls rose just 29,000, cutting bets on another Fed hike; markets now price about a 20% chance of a rise in October. \nChinese buyers returned from the National Day holiday in a buying mood, and Shanghai copper rose 1.4% on reopening.\nNearby metal remains tight. The LME cash-to-three-month spread widened to a US$109/t backwardation on 8 October, meaning buyers are paying up for prompt delivery. \nHeadwinds remain: Brent near US$100/bbl, US 10-year yields around 5.3% and soft Chinese industrial data.\nUS tariffs\nThere is still no White House decision on refined copper. The 50% Section 232 tariff on semi-finished products remains and cathode stays exempt. Commerce's earlier proposal was 15% on refined copper from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028.\n**    Arbitrage:** this year's heavy US imports came with COMEX premiums of about US$400–500/t. COMEX is now trading slightly below LME, far too little to cover freight, insurance and financing, so new US-bound shipments have largely stalled.\n**    Stranded stocks:** COMEX warehouses hold about 700,000 t. A rule-out would not release them quickly, because re-exporting is costly and Glencore expects US users to draw them down over time. The near-term effect would come mainly through weaker US import demand.\nSupply: Chile in focus\n•    Centinela (Antofagasta): a legal strike began on 7 October after mediation failed. Unions say plants are still being fed but most mine movement has stopped, with output hit from November. Antofagasta says its 2026 plan is unchanged.\n•    Escondida (BHP): the supervisors' strike is on hold while government mediation runs for five working days, extendable by five more.\n•    Chile overall: August output was the lowest since February 2011.\n•    Zambia: the waiver of its 10% concentrate export duty lapsed on 30 September.\nCopper price and market balance forecasts\nOur read. LME spot sits about 2% above Morgan Stanley's Q4 target and about 6% above Goldman's year-end call. Deutsche Bank is the outlier, implying roughly 50% upside by mid-2027. A prolonged Chilean strike is the clearest near-term upside risk; a US rule-out on refined tariffs remains the main downside.\nLME: from disclosing sustainability to pricing it\nThe LME is laying the foundations to price sustainability, not just disclose it. Its October Sustainability Spotlight sets out two developments that matter for copper producers.\nSustainability premiums. CPAL, the LME's Dubai-based sister company, is developing independent sustainability premium assessments for LME-listed metals. These would measure what buyers pay above the LME benchmark for metal that meets defined criteria: an LME-listed brand, sustainability data disclosed through LMEpassport, set carbon-intensity thresholds and recognised third-party standards. CPAL is candid that this will take time. \nTrading in sustainable metal is still concentrated in small segments, and premiums will only succeed if they reflect genuine commercial behaviour.\nCopper traceability rules. \nThe LME has confirmed three dates:\n•    1 December 2026: warehouses must report metal data to LMEpassport when warrants are issued, not only on cancellation.\n•    1 January 2028: all LME-listed copper must be accompanied by a Certificate of Analysis.\n•    1 January 2030: copper for warranting must carry an indelible Production Cast Reference marking. Labels alone will no longer be accepted; either is allowed during 2028–29.\n*Why it matters *\nNo copper sustainability premium exists yet. If one emerges, it will reward producers who can prove lower-emission, responsibly sourced production, and copper without those credentials could trade at a relative discount. Copper Mark-assured sites already meet the LME's responsible sourcing requirements, as its Joint Due Diligence Standard is an approved Track A standard; carbon thresholds would be a separate test. It is one of the drivers behind the global Copper Mark program, as well as ICAA's Roadmap to Zero research and the ConnectOre platform.\nAI Supporting Copper Discovery\nThe next mine may be hiding in decades of old drill data. AI reads all the data at once and helps geologists rank drill targets. Mingomba, one of the biggest copper finds in years, proved it works, but every target still has to be drilled.\nAI in exploration: did you know?\n•    The discovery rate for economic deposits has halved in a decade, while average cost has risen fourfold to about US$220 million.\n•    Mines that started up in 2020–23 took almost 18 years from first exploration to production.\n•    About 50 deposits are found worldwide each year, half the pre-2005 rate. Australia makes 12–15 discoveries a year, down from 15–25.\n•    Juniors carry about 45% of exploration spend but make 73% of Australian discoveries.\n•    Conventional greenfield drilling succeeds less than 1% of the time.\nThe data was always there. Australia has filed every drill result and survey since the 1970s. AI's edge is reading it all at once and turning a continent into a ranked list of targets. A model is still a hypothesis until the drill confirms it.\nFrom data to drill target\nAvailable-\nKoBold read legacy Copperbelt data to define Mingomba, a US$2.3bn mine targeting over 300,000 t of copper a year. National-scale models cut search areas by up to 95%.\nEvolving_\nAdelaide's Fleet Space fuses satellites, seismic sensors and machine learning into real-time 3D subsurface imaging, used by Rio Tinto and Barrick.\nEmerging-\nAgentic exploration that chooses the next survey, and pre-competitive data commons, the training-set bottleneck.\nWho is solving it?\nAI explorers    - KoBold Metals · Earth AI · VerAI · GoldSpot · MineDSS\nAustralian innovators -    Fleet Space · Legacy Minerals · MinEx CRC · Unearthed\nMajors and partners     - BHP · Rio Tinto · Barrick · Midnight Sun\nResearch and data     - CSIRO · Geoscience Australia · State geological surveys\nRead the full ConnectOre Pulse briefing at connectore.org.\nSources\n•    LME, Sustainability Spotlight — October 2026\n•    Westmetall, LME copper official prices and stocks (8 Oct 2026)\n•    Metalcharts, COMEX copper price (8 Oct 2026)\n•    Trading Economics, Copper price and news\n•    Reuters via Business Recorder, Copper rallies on mine supply fears, China's return from holiday (8 Oct 2026)\n•    Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Copper gains as China returns in positive mood (8 Oct 2026)\n•    Bloomberg via Bloomberg Línea, Copper gains as US jobs data offers relief (5 Oct 2026)\n•    The Rio Times, Copper fund slips as Centinela strike begins (8 Oct 2026)\n•    SP Angel, Market view, 8 October 2026\n•    The Rio Times, BHP pauses Escondida strike with five-day talks (5 Oct 2026)\n•    Reuters via Kitco, US tariff threat upends copper surplus (25 Aug 2026)\n•    Mining Reporters, US copper tariff, COMEX–LME spread and global market (May 2026)\n•    ING Think, What's next for US copper import tariffs (12 Jun 2026)\n•    Morgan Stanley via Webull, Q4 LME target maintained\n•    Goldman Sachs via MiningNewsWire, Year-end forecast raised to US$13,735/t (9 Jun 2026)\n•    Bloomberg HT, Deutsche Bank copper forecast (28 Sep 2026)\n•    Industrial Info, Coc Hilco raises 2026 copper price forecast (18 Aug 2026)\n•    The Copper Mark, FAQs (LME Track A recognition)\n•    ICAA, Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 2 October 2026\n•    ConnectOre, Pulse briefing \"AI found a copper mine\" (2026); Wood Mackenzie and ICSG balances carried from last week's brief\n","text":"\nCopper ended a choppy week firmer in London and flat in New York.\nChinese buyers returned from Golden Week on 8 October, a day after a strike began at Chile's Centinela mine. LME three-month traded up to US$14,646.50/t, its highest in nearly two weeks, before gains faded. \nThe LME official cash price settled at US$14,526/t (US$14.53/kg) on 8 October, up 1.2% on the week and about 2% below September's record. COMEX settled near US$6.53/lb, or US$14,400/t (US$14.40/kg). LME stocks fell 13,425 t over the week to 235,225 t.\nIn Australian dollar terms, LME copper is around A$20,900/t.\n\n\n**Market overview**\n\nThree forces drove copper this week: softer US rate expectations, China's return and Chilean strike risk. September US payrolls rose just 29,000, cutting bets on another Fed hike; markets now price about a 20% chance of a rise in October. \nChinese buyers returned from the National Day holiday in a buying mood, and Shanghai copper rose 1.4% on reopening.\nNearby metal remains tight. The LME cash-to-three-month spread widened to a US$109/t backwardation on 8 October, meaning buyers are paying up for prompt delivery. \nHeadwinds remain: Brent near US$100/bbl, US 10-year yields around 5.3% and soft Chinese industrial data.\n\n**US tariffs**\n\nThere is still no White House decision on refined copper. The 50% Section 232 tariff on semi-finished products remains and cathode stays exempt. Commerce's earlier proposal was 15% on refined copper from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028.\n\n**\tArbitrage:** this year's heavy US imports came with COMEX premiums of about US$400–500/t. COMEX is now trading slightly below LME, far too little to cover freight, insurance and financing, so new US-bound shipments have largely stalled.\n\n**\tStranded stocks:** COMEX warehouses hold about 700,000 t. A rule-out would not release them quickly, because re-exporting is costly and Glencore expects US users to draw them down over time. The near-term effect would come mainly through weaker US import demand.\n\n**Supply: Chile in focus**\n\n•\tCentinela (Antofagasta): a legal strike began on 7 October after mediation failed. Unions say plants are still being fed but most mine movement has stopped, with output hit from November. Antofagasta says its 2026 plan is unchanged.\n•\tEscondida (BHP): the supervisors' strike is on hold while government mediation runs for five working days, extendable by five more.\n•\tChile overall: August output was the lowest since February 2011.\n•\tZambia: the waiver of its 10% concentrate export duty lapsed on 30 September.\n\n**Copper price and market balance forecasts**\n\n**Our read**. LME spot sits about 2% above Morgan Stanley's Q4 target and about 6% above Goldman's year-end call. Deutsche Bank is the outlier, implying roughly 50% upside by mid-2027. A prolonged Chilean strike is the clearest near-term upside risk; a US rule-out on refined tariffs remains the main downside.\n\n\n**LME: from disclosing sustainability to pricing it**\n\nThe LME is laying the foundations to price sustainability, not just disclose it. Its October Sustainability Spotlight sets out two developments that matter for copper producers.\nSustainability premiums. CPAL, the LME's Dubai-based sister company, is developing independent sustainability premium assessments for LME-listed metals. These would measure what buyers pay above the LME benchmark for metal that meets defined criteria: an LME-listed brand, sustainability data disclosed through LMEpassport, set carbon-intensity thresholds and recognised third-party standards. CPAL is candid that this will take time. \nTrading in sustainable metal is still concentrated in small segments, and premiums will only succeed if they reflect genuine commercial behaviour.\n\n**Copper traceability rules.** \nThe LME has confirmed three dates:\n•\t1 December 2026: warehouses must report metal data to LMEpassport when warrants are issued, not only on cancellation.\n•\t1 January 2028: all LME-listed copper must be accompanied by a Certificate of Analysis.\n•\t1 January 2030: copper for warranting must carry an indelible Production Cast Reference marking. Labels alone will no longer be accepted; either is allowed during 2028–29.\n\n**Why it matters **\n\nNo copper sustainability premium exists yet. If one emerges, it will reward producers who can prove lower-emission, responsibly sourced production, and copper without those credentials could trade at a relative discount. Copper Mark-assured sites already meet the LME's responsible sourcing requirements, as its Joint Due Diligence Standard is an approved Track A standard; carbon thresholds would be a separate test. It is one of the drivers behind the global Copper Mark program, as well as ICAA's Roadmap to Zero research and the ConnectOre platform.\n\n\n**AI Supporting Copper Discovery**\n\nThe next mine may be hiding in decades of old drill data. AI reads all the data at once and helps geologists rank drill targets. Mingomba, one of the biggest copper finds in years, proved it works, but every target still has to be drilled.\n\n**AI in exploration: did you know?**\n•\tThe discovery rate for economic deposits has halved in a decade, while average cost has risen fourfold to about US$220 million.\n•\tMines that started up in 2020–23 took almost 18 years from first exploration to production.\n•\tAbout 50 deposits are found worldwide each year, half the pre-2005 rate. Australia makes 12–15 discoveries a year, down from 15–25.\n•\tJuniors carry about 45% of exploration spend but make 73% of Australian discoveries.\n•\tConventional greenfield drilling succeeds less than 1% of the time.\n\nThe data was always there. Australia has filed every drill result and survey since the 1970s. AI's edge is reading it all at once and turning a continent into a ranked list of targets. A model is still a hypothesis until the drill confirms it.\n\n**From data to drill target**\n\nAvailable-\nKoBold read legacy Copperbelt data to define Mingomba, a US$2.3bn mine targeting over 300,000 t of copper a year. National-scale models cut search areas by up to 95%.\nEvolving_\nAdelaide's Fleet Space fuses satellites, seismic sensors and machine learning into real-time 3D subsurface imaging, used by Rio Tinto and Barrick.\nEmerging-\nAgentic exploration that chooses the next survey, and pre-competitive data commons, the training-set bottleneck.\n\n**Who is solving it?**\n\n\nAI explorers\t- KoBold Metals · Earth AI · VerAI · GoldSpot · MineDSS\nAustralian innovators -\tFleet Space · Legacy Minerals · MinEx CRC · Unearthed\nMajors and partners\t - BHP · Rio Tinto · Barrick · Midnight Sun\nResearch and data\t - CSIRO · Geoscience Australia · State geological surveys\n\nRead the full ConnectOre Pulse briefing at **connectore.org.**\n\n**Sources**\n•\tLME, Sustainability Spotlight — October 2026\n•\tWestmetall, LME copper official prices and stocks (8 Oct 2026)\n•\tMetalcharts, COMEX copper price (8 Oct 2026)\n•\tTrading Economics, Copper price and news\n•\tReuters via Business Recorder, Copper rallies on mine supply fears, China's return from holiday (8 Oct 2026)\n•\tBloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Copper gains as China returns in positive mood (8 Oct 2026)\n•\tBloomberg via Bloomberg Línea, Copper gains as US jobs data offers relief (5 Oct 2026)\n•\tThe Rio Times, Copper fund slips as Centinela strike begins (8 Oct 2026)\n•\tSP Angel, Market view, 8 October 2026\n•\tThe Rio Times, BHP pauses Escondida strike with five-day talks (5 Oct 2026)\n•\tReuters via Kitco, US tariff threat upends copper surplus (25 Aug 2026)\n•\tMining Reporters, US copper tariff, COMEX–LME spread and global market (May 2026)\n•\tING Think, What's next for US copper import tariffs (12 Jun 2026)\n•\tMorgan Stanley via Webull, Q4 LME target maintained\n•\tGoldman Sachs via MiningNewsWire, Year-end forecast raised to US$13,735/t (9 Jun 2026)\n•\tBloomberg HT, Deutsche Bank copper forecast (28 Sep 2026)\n•\tIndustrial Info, Coc Hilco raises 2026 copper price forecast (18 Aug 2026)\n•\tThe Copper Mark, FAQs (LME Track A recognition)\n•\tICAA, Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 2 October 2026\n•\tConnectOre, Pulse briefing \"AI found a copper mine\" (2026); Wood Mackenzie and ICSG balances carried from last week's brief\n\n"},"openGraph":{"title":null,"description":{"plain":"**Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 9 October 2026\nCopper: about US$14,400/t on COMEX, US$14,526/t on LME\n"},"image":{"thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1791698742/copper-connect/banner/cu-weekly-brief-09102026-1_image__copper_brief_9oct2026_qwlkbn.png"}}}},"intro":{"plain":"**Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 9 October 2026\nCopper: about US$14,400/t on COMEX, US$14,526/t on LME\n","text":"**Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 9 October 2026\n\n**Copper: about US$14,400/t on COMEX, US$14,526/t on 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":{"name":"Terms of Use","title":null,"slug":"terms-of-use","path":"/terms-of-use"},"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-07-31T04:44:47.80","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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