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After a month of consolidation, COMEX and LME benchmarks both pushed to fresh multi-month or record highs within days of each other — even as Wood Mackenzie's latest outlook flagged a more nuanced supply picture beneath the headline strength. \nMarket setting\nUS copper futures spiked to around US$6.90/lb (roughly US$15.2/kg, or US$15,200/t) during trading on Thursday 6 August — a fresh all-time high — before easing back into the close. That followed a record close of US$6.7030/lb (about US$14.8/kg) on Wednesday 5 August, and an even higher price briefly reached during Thursday's session of US$6.7045/lb (US$14.8/kg), which surpassed the previous high of roughly US$6.69/lb (US$14.7/kg) set in mid-May — a gain of about 17 percent year-to-date.\nOn the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper pushed through US$14,000/t (US$14.0/kg) for the first time in two months on 4 August, extended gains to around US$14,060–14,185/t (US$14.1–14.2/kg) through the week, and moved to within a few hundred dollars of January's record high of US$14,527.50/t (US$14.5/kg). Trading Economics data confirmed the acceleration, showing copper up more than 50 percent year-on-year and roughly 8.6 percent higher over the preceding week alone — a clear break from the mid-US$13,000s (~US$13.2–13.7/kg) range that defined the week ending 31 July.\nMacro pressure\nThe dominant story of the week was Reuters' exclusive report that the Democratic Republic of Congo — the world's second-largest copper supplier and largest cobalt producer — has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates under a June 29 order signed by its Mines, Foreign Trade and Economy Ministers. The ban took effect immediately, one-year strategic waivers remain possible, and a new by-product tax regime (using a 55 percent valuation coefficient) phases in over three months. \nReaction was split: Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said the move \"has more bark than bite,\" estimating it puts less than 1 percent of global copper supply at risk and calling it a tightening of a long-standing waiver regime rather than a sudden shock. S&P Global separately reported that China sourced only 1.9 percent of its copper concentrate imports from the DRC in the first half of 2026, and that Kamoa-Kakula's new domestic smelter should absorb much of the affected volume; Ivanhoe Mines, the operation's part-owner, clarified that unbeneficiated concentrate export restrictions have effectively applied in the DRC for close to a decade. Even so, the headline was enough to push LME copper up as much as 1.8 percent on the day.\nThe concentrate market was already strained before the ban. S&P Global reported 2026 annual benchmark treatment charges were set at US$0/mt, down from US$21/mt in 2025, with the Platts spot assessment sliding to around minus US$125/mt CIF China by late June from minus US$50/mt in January — smelters, in effect, paying miners to take concentrate. CRU has flagged the same dynamic in its 2026 outlook, warning that tight concentrates and weak smelter economics are keeping bargaining power firmly with miners and could even call the LME benchmark system into question.\nUS tariff policy remains the other principal driver. This week's rally has been linked to positioning ahead of an anticipated decision on import tariffs from President Trump, layered on top of constrained supply and rising electrification demand. The COMEX–LME arbitrage has continued to draw metal into the US, with record COMEX inventories building even as spreads narrow from the extremes seen earlier in the year — consistent with the pattern flagged in the week ending 31 July brief.\nRegional signals\nChile, the world's largest producer, delivered a more constructive signal this week: national statistics showed June output up 5.1 percent year-on-year to 447,294 metric tons, a clear rebound from May's 12.9 percent annual decline. That improvement should be read against a weak prior-year base rather than a durable ore-grade turnaround, and on its own it has not been enough to loosen the market: continued tariff-driven buying into the US, together with steady (if uneven) demand from China, kept pulling metal away from other regions and left prices unchecked.\nChina's underlying demand is the clearest illustration of that \"uneven\" picture. Growth data out of China has been mixed rather than clearly weak, but LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories both fell into early August — a sign that consumption has stayed resilient enough to keep drawing down stock, even without a strong demand upswing. In other words, China isn't driving a demand boom, but nor is it pulling back; it is simply continuing to absorb metal at a steady pace, which is enough to reinforce tightness rather than relieve it. Wood Mackenzie also flagged a less obvious supply constraint this week: a halving of global sulphur supplies, compounded by China's sulphuric acid export ban, is weighing on copper and nickel production — a new wrinkle in the supply picture just as the DRC ban and the ongoing Iran-related conflict keep broader commodity-market risk elevated.\nPrice structure\nUBS notes it has already lifted its full-year 2026 copper price forecast by 13 percent and its 2027 and 2028 projections by 4 and 3 percent respectively, to around US$6.00/lb (US$13,200/t, or US$13.2/kg), while raising its long-term incentive price by 10 percent to US$5.50/lb (about US$12.1/kg). Those targets, first flagged in June, are now being tested from above rather than below, given this week's push through US$14,000/t and toward the January record.\nWood Mackenzie's mid-year outlook — titled \"twists, turns and transitions\" — offers a more nuanced read than pure structural tightness. The consultancy says supply build-out for most metals has been stronger than it expected in H1 2026, \"even in copper,\" where it now sees surpluses coming back to help balance the market, even as it flags that renewed conflict and trade restrictions are beginning to pressure inflation and could weigh on demand into H2.\nTrading Economics' short-term model, cited in the prior brief, still points to 6.35 US$/lb by quarter-end and 6.96 US$/lb within 12 months — equivalent to roughly US$14.0/kg and US$15.3/kg — a trajectory this week's record COMEX price above US$6.90/lb suggests may already be running ahead of schedule.\nSupply and demand\nThe net effect is a market being pulled in two directions at once: a genuine African concentrate disruption and aggressive US tariff-driven stockpiling are tightening near-term physical availability and pushing prices to fresh highs, even as Wood Mackenzie's updated view suggests the underlying 2026 supply build has been stronger than expected, with copper surpluses re-emerging at the margin. Weak treatment charges and CRU's warning on smelter economics suggest scarcity is concentrated at the concentrate and smelting stage rather than necessarily in refined metal.\nStructural demand — grid investment, EVs, renewables and AI-driven data-centre build-out — remains intact and continues to underpin the medium-term bull case that UBS, and now a more qualified Wood Mackenzie, have both articulated. For now, though, price action is dominated by policy headlines out of Washington and Kinshasa rather than by the slower-moving supply-demand balance itself.\nConnectOre\nThis week's twin shocks — a concentrate export ban from a major African supplier and a tariff-driven scramble for US-bound metal — underline that supply resilience is now as much about policy risk and processing capacity as it is about ore in the ground. As the ICAA website states, ConnectOre aggregates knowledge and surfaces insights on technology and emerging research to help address key industry challenges, including zero-emission mining — exactly the kind of processing and efficiency gains this week's concentrate squeeze puts a premium on.\nGo to: https://connectore.org\n","text":"\nCopper broke decisively higher this week, driven by an escalating supply scare out of the Democratic Republic of Congo, aggressive tariff-driven stockpiling in the United States, and a resilient structural demand story tied to electrification and grid investment. After a month of consolidation, COMEX and LME benchmarks both pushed to fresh multi-month or record highs within days of each other — even as Wood Mackenzie's latest outlook flagged a more nuanced supply picture beneath the headline strength. \n\n**Market setting**\n\nUS copper futures spiked to around US$6.90/lb (roughly US$15.2/kg, or US$15,200/t) during trading on Thursday 6 August — a fresh all-time high — before easing back into the close. That followed a record close of US$6.7030/lb (about US$14.8/kg) on Wednesday 5 August, and an even higher price briefly reached during Thursday's session of US$6.7045/lb (~US$14.8/kg), which surpassed the previous high of roughly US$6.69/lb (~US$14.7/kg) set in mid-May — a gain of about 17 percent year-to-date.\n\nOn the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper pushed through US$14,000/t (US$14.0/kg) for the first time in two months on 4 August, extended gains to around US$14,060–14,185/t (US$14.1–14.2/kg) through the week, and moved to within a few hundred dollars of January's record high of US$14,527.50/t (US$14.5/kg). Trading Economics data confirmed the acceleration, showing copper up more than 50 percent year-on-year and roughly 8.6 percent higher over the preceding week alone — a clear break from the mid-US$13,000s (~US$13.2–13.7/kg) range that defined the week ending 31 July.\n\n**Macro pressure**\n\nThe dominant story of the week was Reuters' exclusive report that the Democratic Republic of Congo — the world's second-largest copper supplier and largest cobalt producer — has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates under a June 29 order signed by its Mines, Foreign Trade and Economy Ministers. The ban took effect immediately, one-year strategic waivers remain possible, and a new by-product tax regime (using a 55 percent valuation coefficient) phases in over three months. \nReaction was split: Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said the move \"has more bark than bite,\" estimating it puts less than 1 percent of global copper supply at risk and calling it a tightening of a long-standing waiver regime rather than a sudden shock. S&P Global separately reported that China sourced only 1.9 percent of its copper concentrate imports from the DRC in the first half of 2026, and that Kamoa-Kakula's new domestic smelter should absorb much of the affected volume; Ivanhoe Mines, the operation's part-owner, clarified that unbeneficiated concentrate export restrictions have effectively applied in the DRC for close to a decade. Even so, the headline was enough to push LME copper up as much as 1.8 percent on the day.\n\nThe concentrate market was already strained before the ban. S&P Global reported 2026 annual benchmark treatment charges were set at US$0/mt, down from US$21/mt in 2025, with the Platts spot assessment sliding to around minus US$125/mt CIF China by late June from minus US$50/mt in January — smelters, in effect, paying miners to take concentrate. CRU has flagged the same dynamic in its 2026 outlook, warning that tight concentrates and weak smelter economics are keeping bargaining power firmly with miners and could even call the LME benchmark system into question.\n\nUS tariff policy remains the other principal driver. This week's rally has been linked to positioning ahead of an anticipated decision on import tariffs from President Trump, layered on top of constrained supply and rising electrification demand. The COMEX–LME arbitrage has continued to draw metal into the US, with record COMEX inventories building even as spreads narrow from the extremes seen earlier in the year — consistent with the pattern flagged in the week ending 31 July brief.\n\n**Regional signals**\n\nChile, the world's largest producer, delivered a more constructive signal this week: national statistics showed June output up 5.1 percent year-on-year to 447,294 metric tons, a clear rebound from May's 12.9 percent annual decline. That improvement should be read against a weak prior-year base rather than a durable ore-grade turnaround, and on its own it has not been enough to loosen the market: continued tariff-driven buying into the US, together with steady (if uneven) demand from China, kept pulling metal away from other regions and left prices unchecked.\n\nChina's underlying demand is the clearest illustration of that \"uneven\" picture. Growth data out of China has been mixed rather than clearly weak, but LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories both fell into early August — a sign that consumption has stayed resilient enough to keep drawing down stock, even without a strong demand upswing. In other words, China isn't driving a demand boom, but nor is it pulling back; it is simply continuing to absorb metal at a steady pace, which is enough to reinforce tightness rather than relieve it. Wood Mackenzie also flagged a less obvious supply constraint this week: a halving of global sulphur supplies, compounded by China's sulphuric acid export ban, is weighing on copper and nickel production — a new wrinkle in the supply picture just as the DRC ban and the ongoing Iran-related conflict keep broader commodity-market risk elevated.\n\n**Price structure**\n\nUBS notes it has already lifted its full-year 2026 copper price forecast by 13 percent and its 2027 and 2028 projections by 4 and 3 percent respectively, to around US$6.00/lb (US$13,200/t, or US$13.2/kg), while raising its long-term incentive price by 10 percent to US$5.50/lb (about US$12.1/kg). Those targets, first flagged in June, are now being tested from above rather than below, given this week's push through US$14,000/t and toward the January record.\n\nWood Mackenzie's mid-year outlook — titled \"twists, turns and transitions\" — offers a more nuanced read than pure structural tightness. The consultancy says supply build-out for most metals has been stronger than it expected in H1 2026, \"even in copper,\" where it now sees surpluses coming back to help balance the market, even as it flags that renewed conflict and trade restrictions are beginning to pressure inflation and could weigh on demand into H2.\n\nTrading Economics' short-term model, cited in the prior brief, still points to 6.35 US$/lb by quarter-end and 6.96 US$/lb within 12 months — equivalent to roughly US$14.0/kg and US$15.3/kg — a trajectory this week's record COMEX price above US$6.90/lb suggests may already be running ahead of schedule.\n\n**Supply and demand**\n\nThe net effect is a market being pulled in two directions at once: a genuine African concentrate disruption and aggressive US tariff-driven stockpiling are tightening near-term physical availability and pushing prices to fresh highs, even as Wood Mackenzie's updated view suggests the underlying 2026 supply build has been stronger than expected, with copper surpluses re-emerging at the margin. Weak treatment charges and CRU's warning on smelter economics suggest scarcity is concentrated at the concentrate and smelting stage rather than necessarily in refined metal.\n\nStructural demand — grid investment, EVs, renewables and AI-driven data-centre build-out — remains intact and continues to underpin the medium-term bull case that UBS, and now a more qualified Wood Mackenzie, have both articulated. For now, though, price action is dominated by policy headlines out of Washington and Kinshasa rather than by the slower-moving supply-demand balance itself.\n\n**ConnectOre**\n\nThis week's twin shocks — a concentrate export ban from a major African supplier and a tariff-driven scramble for US-bound metal — underline that supply resilience is now as much about policy risk and processing capacity as it is about ore in the ground. As the ICAA website states, ConnectOre aggregates knowledge and surfaces insights on technology and emerging research to help address key industry challenges, including zero-emission mining — exactly the kind of processing and efficiency gains this week's concentrate squeeze puts a premium on.\n\nGo to: https://connectore.org\n\n"},"openGraph":{"title":null,"description":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief — Week Ending 7 August 2026\n"},"image":{"thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1786071534/copper-connect/banner/copper-weekly-brief-7th-august-2026_image__copper-weekly-brief-7-aug-2026-hero_zvlt49.png"}}}},"intro":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief — Week Ending 7 August 2026\n","text":"**Copper Weekly Brief — Week Ending 7 August 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":{"name":"Terms of Use","title":null,"slug":"terms-of-use","path":"/terms-of-use"},"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-07-31T04:44:47.80","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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