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Bloomberg’s Wednesday read was that the rally had stalled as worries about the global economy resurfaced. \nBy Friday the ICAA reference price stood at US$14,333 per tonne, or US$14.33 per kilogram, with COMEX trading in a range of roughly US$14,200–14,550/t (US$14.20–14.55/kg). Trading Economics records the metal down roughly 1.9% over the month but still up 47% year to date. The LME cash-to-three-month backwardation, which peaked near US$550/t in mid-August, has eased to the low hundreds as metal returned to exchange sheds. \nThe correction is a repricing around policy and the dollar rather than any change in the physical story.\nMacro Issues\nThe supply-side constraints carried over unchanged. Middle East disruption continues to restrict sulphuric acid supply to South American SX-EW producers; the DRC concentrate export ban is now in its third month; and Indonesia’s PT Smelting Gresik remains offline. Codelco’s half-year results, reported 28 August, framed the Chilean picture bluntly: first-half output fell 11% to 564,000 tonnes on operational restrictions at El Teniente, weaker grades at Ministro Hales and reduced Chuquicamata volumes, and the 1.33–1.36Mt 2026 guidance is now described as difficult to achieve. Pre-tax profit nonetheless rose to US$1.97 billion on a realised price of about US$14,400/t (US$14.40/kg), while cash costs climbed 7%. Reuters’ commodities desk notes that the LME zinc squeeze this week points to the same deepening Western supply risk visible in copper. \nThe Economist and Financial Times continue to characterise 2026 as a year in which policy has become a first-order price variable alongside geology.\nMacro and Regional Themes\nThe US Section 232 decision on refined cathode remains unresolved, and the market has moved from pricing a single announcement to pricing a probability distribution: CNBC and Reuters both describe the COMEX–LME spread as a live gauge of Washington’s next move. COMEX registered stocks sit near 675,000 tonnes after July’s record 200,000-tonne import surge. Against that, the net long position held by hedge funds and other speculators in COMEX copper futures is equivalent to roughly 912,000 tonnes of metal, according to FXEmpire.\nIn other words, investors are betting on higher prices with more paper copper than there is physical copper in the exchange’s warehouses. That leaves positioning crowded and vulnerable to the kind of rate-driven sell-off seen on Tuesday, as leveraged holders are forced to exit at the same time. \nIn China, cathode rod operating rates below 60% and a narrower Yangshan premium confirm that high prices are rationing demand at the margin, though grid investment and EV output remain the structural anchors. India has resumed talks with Zambia and is scouting Canada, Australia, Brazil and Indonesia for long-term supply, a reminder that the buyer base is diversifying.\nFor Australian producers, the Australian dollar price remains historically elevated, sustaining strong margins and cash flows despite the week’s softer US dollar quote.\nCopper to the World, Adelaide\nCopper to the World 2026, held at the Adelaide Convention Centre on 2–3 September under the theme Powering the Future, brought together miners, METS suppliers, researchers, investors and government under Austmine and the South Australian Government. \nThe opening keynote from BHP Copper South Australia asset president Anna Wiley, alongside ICA CEO Juan Ignacio Diaz and CRU’s Piers Montgomery, framed a demand story participants described as unique among the metals. The mood on the floor was one of considerable optimism. Delegates recognised the scale of the growth opportunity in AI and data centres, electric vehicles, renewable generation, storage and transmission, and the electrification of everything, and the corresponding need for new copper supply, faster project execution and technology adoption to meet it. \nBloomberg Intelligence puts data-centre copper intensity at 27–33 tonnes per megawatt, implying 1.1–2.4Mt of additional North American demand by 2030 as global capacity doubles to around 80GW. \nCloser to home, Australian copper exports are forecast to rise from A$13 billion to A$18.3 billion by 2030–31, and BHP is targeting 500,000 tonnes a year from South Australia by the mid-2030s. \nThe common thread across the two days was that copper underpins the health and wealth of future societies, and the industry’s task is to deliver it responsibly.\nPrices: Supply and Demand\nThe analyst picture is little changed from last week, with the Trading Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence views added for this edition:\nOrganisation    Outlook    Key driver\nGoldman Sachs    US$13,735/t YE 2026; ~US$13,800/t 2027 avgMorgan Stanley    Deficit-led bull case; ~600,000t 2026 \nWood Mackenzie    US$13,200–13,800/t; \nCRU    Revised from surplus toward balance/deficit    US import pull; smelter cuts\nTrading Economics    ~US$14,640/t Q3; ~US$15,940/t 12-monthBloomberg Intelligence    +2Mt global demand by 2030    Data centres 27–33 t/MW\nGoldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley remain constructive on structural grounds, while shorter-dated technical calls, such as FXEmpire’s US$13,900/t (US$13.90/kg) September target, reflect the crowded COMEX position rather than any shift in fundamentals.\nSupply and Demand Outlook\nTreatment and refining charges remain at or below zero, smelter economics are strained, and the major growth projects at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Andes Norte are 2028–2029 events. Against that, this week showed how quickly macro sentiment can override tightness in the short run. \nThe practical read is unchanged: expect elevated volatility until the tariff question is settled and the Fed path is clearer, but the medium-term balance still leans toward deficit. The optimism voiced in Adelaide is grounded in that arithmetic.\nConnectOre\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital knowledge platform, bringing together technology, research and practical industry insight from across the copper value chain. It supports collaboration on issues including zero-emission mining, processing efficiency, automation, water, tailings and sustainability themes already moving to the centre of sector strategy. After a week in which the industry gathered in Adelaide to talk about delivering the copper the future needs, that role is more relevant than ever: operational knowledge and technology adoption matter most when supply chains are tight, costs are rising and execution risk is increasing.\nGo to: connectore.org\nSources\nBloomberg, “Copper’s Rally Stalls as Worries About Global Economy Resurface”, 2 September 2026; Bloomberg Intelligence, “Copper demand is set for data-center boost”\nReuters Commodities Desk via Investing.com and Mining Weekly (LME zinc squeeze, 3 September 2026; tariff threat analysis)\nTrading Economics, Copper (4 September 2026); MINING.com (Codelco H1 results, 28 August 2026; LME warehouse squeeze)\nThe Rio Times, LatAm copper markets, 1–2 September 2026; FXEmpire, LME squeeze forecast; The Northern Miner (LME inventory)\nInvestMETS and International Mining, Copper to the World 2026 (Austmine / Government of South Australia)\nGoldman Sachs Research, Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie, CRU, UBS, Citi, ICSG; Australian Financial Review, Financial Times, New York Times, The Economist; LME, COMEX, CNBC\nICAA Copper Weekly Brief, Week Ending 28 August 2026\n","text":"**\nMarket Overview**\n\nCopper spent the week consolidating below the record set on 25 August, when COMEX futures touched the equivalent of US$14,770/t (US$14.77/kg) and LME three-month metal came within reach of January’s US$14,527.50/t high. The retreat gathered pace on Tuesday, 1 September, when a firmer US dollar and rising bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes hit industrial metals broadly; copper-linked equities fell 2–4% on the session. Bloomberg’s Wednesday read was that the rally had stalled as worries about the global economy resurfaced. \nBy Friday the ICAA reference price stood at US$14,333 per tonne, or US$14.33 per kilogram, with COMEX trading in a range of roughly US$14,200–14,550/t (US$14.20–14.55/kg). Trading Economics records the metal down roughly 1.9% over the month but still up 47% year to date. The LME cash-to-three-month backwardation, which peaked near US$550/t in mid-August, has eased to the low hundreds as metal returned to exchange sheds. \nThe correction is a repricing around policy and the dollar rather than any change in the physical story.\n\n**Macro Issues**\n\nThe supply-side constraints carried over unchanged. Middle East disruption continues to restrict sulphuric acid supply to South American SX-EW producers; the DRC concentrate export ban is now in its third month; and Indonesia’s PT Smelting Gresik remains offline. Codelco’s half-year results, reported 28 August, framed the Chilean picture bluntly: first-half output fell 11% to 564,000 tonnes on operational restrictions at El Teniente, weaker grades at Ministro Hales and reduced Chuquicamata volumes, and the 1.33–1.36Mt 2026 guidance is now described as difficult to achieve. Pre-tax profit nonetheless rose to US$1.97 billion on a realised price of about US$14,400/t (US$14.40/kg), while cash costs climbed 7%. Reuters’ commodities desk notes that the LME zinc squeeze this week points to the same deepening Western supply risk visible in copper. \nThe Economist and Financial Times continue to characterise 2026 as a year in which policy has become a first-order price variable alongside geology.\n\n**Macro and Regional Themes**\n\nThe US Section 232 decision on refined cathode remains unresolved, and the market has moved from pricing a single announcement to pricing a probability distribution: CNBC and Reuters both describe the COMEX–LME spread as a live gauge of Washington’s next move. COMEX registered stocks sit near 675,000 tonnes after July’s record 200,000-tonne import surge. Against that, the net long position held by hedge funds and other speculators in COMEX copper futures is equivalent to roughly 912,000 tonnes of metal, according to FXEmpire.\nIn other words, investors are betting on higher prices with more paper copper than there is physical copper in the exchange’s warehouses. That leaves positioning crowded and vulnerable to the kind of rate-driven sell-off seen on Tuesday, as leveraged holders are forced to exit at the same time. \nIn China, cathode rod operating rates below 60% and a narrower Yangshan premium confirm that high prices are rationing demand at the margin, though grid investment and EV output remain the structural anchors. India has resumed talks with Zambia and is scouting Canada, Australia, Brazil and Indonesia for long-term supply, a reminder that the buyer base is diversifying.\nFor Australian producers, the Australian dollar price remains historically elevated, sustaining strong margins and cash flows despite the week’s softer US dollar quote.\n\n**Copper to the World, Adelaide**\n\nCopper to the World 2026, held at the Adelaide Convention Centre on 2–3 September under the theme Powering the Future, brought together miners, METS suppliers, researchers, investors and government under Austmine and the South Australian Government. \nThe opening keynote from BHP Copper South Australia asset president Anna Wiley, alongside ICA CEO Juan Ignacio Diaz and CRU’s Piers Montgomery, framed a demand story participants described as unique among the metals. The mood on the floor was one of considerable optimism. Delegates recognised the scale of the growth opportunity in AI and data centres, electric vehicles, renewable generation, storage and transmission, and the electrification of everything, and the corresponding need for new copper supply, faster project execution and technology adoption to meet it. \nBloomberg Intelligence puts data-centre copper intensity at 27–33 tonnes per megawatt, implying 1.1–2.4Mt of additional North American demand by 2030 as global capacity doubles to around 80GW. \nCloser to home, Australian copper exports are forecast to rise from A$13 billion to A$18.3 billion by 2030–31, and BHP is targeting 500,000 tonnes a year from South Australia by the mid-2030s. \nThe common thread across the two days was that copper underpins the health and wealth of future societies, and the industry’s task is to deliver it responsibly.\n\n**Prices: Supply and Demand**\n\nThe analyst picture is little changed from last week, with the Trading Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence views added for this edition:\nOrganisation\tOutlook\tKey driver\nGoldman Sachs\tUS$13,735/t YE 2026; ~US$13,800/t 2027 avg\t\nMorgan Stanley\tDeficit-led bull case; ~600,000t 2026 \nWood Mackenzie\tUS$13,200–13,800/t; \nCRU\tRevised from surplus toward balance/deficit\tUS import pull; smelter cuts\nTrading Economics\t~US$14,640/t Q3; ~US$15,940/t 12-month\t\nBloomberg Intelligence\t+2Mt global demand by 2030\tData centres 27–33 t/MW\n\nGoldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley remain constructive on structural grounds, while shorter-dated technical calls, such as FXEmpire’s US$13,900/t (US$13.90/kg) September target, reflect the crowded COMEX position rather than any shift in fundamentals.\n\n**Supply and Demand Outlook**\n\nTreatment and refining charges remain at or below zero, smelter economics are strained, and the major growth projects at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Andes Norte are 2028–2029 events. Against that, this week showed how quickly macro sentiment can override tightness in the short run. \nThe practical read is unchanged: expect elevated volatility until the tariff question is settled and the Fed path is clearer, but the medium-term balance still leans toward deficit. The optimism voiced in Adelaide is grounded in that arithmetic.\n\n**ConnectOre**\n\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital knowledge platform, bringing together technology, research and practical industry insight from across the copper value chain. It supports collaboration on issues including zero-emission mining, processing efficiency, automation, water, tailings and sustainability themes already moving to the centre of sector strategy. After a week in which the industry gathered in Adelaide to talk about delivering the copper the future needs, that role is more relevant than ever: operational knowledge and technology adoption matter most when supply chains are tight, costs are rising and execution risk is increasing.\n**Go to: connectore.org**\n\n**Sources**\n\nBloomberg, “Copper’s Rally Stalls as Worries About Global Economy Resurface”, 2 September 2026; Bloomberg Intelligence, “Copper demand is set for data-center boost”\nReuters Commodities Desk via Investing.com and Mining Weekly (LME zinc squeeze, 3 September 2026; tariff threat analysis)\nTrading Economics, Copper (4 September 2026); MINING.com (Codelco H1 results, 28 August 2026; LME warehouse squeeze)\nThe Rio Times, LatAm copper markets, 1–2 September 2026; FXEmpire, LME squeeze forecast; The Northern Miner (LME inventory)\nInvestMETS and International Mining, Copper to the World 2026 (Austmine / Government of South Australia)\nGoldman Sachs Research, Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie, CRU, UBS, Citi, ICSG; Australian Financial Review, Financial Times, New York Times, The Economist; LME, COMEX, CNBC\nICAA Copper Weekly Brief, Week Ending 28 August 2026\n\n"},"openGraph":{"title":null,"description":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief - 4th September 2026\n"},"image":{"thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1788495547/copper-connect/banner/cu-weekly-brief-04092026_image__Cu-weekly-image-27022026-300x171_cc3plk.png"}}}},"intro":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief - 4th September 2026\n","text":"Copper Weekly Brief - 4th September 2026"},"outro":{"id":"6a9a485b706cd41f2e788fc2_outro","text":""},"videos":[],"imageAssets":[],"organisations":[],"people":[],"embeds":{"citations":[],"pages":[],"people":[],"imageAssets":[]},"banners":[{"id":"6a9a46d6706cd41f2e788fbf","name":"Cu Weekly brief 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":{"name":"Terms of Use","title":null,"slug":"terms-of-use","path":"/terms-of-use"},"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-07-31T04:44:47.80","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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