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LME three-month copper touched US$14,251/t, just below January’s record of US$14,527.50/t.\nBy Thursday 27 August, COMEX had eased about 1.6% to around US$6.58/lb (US$14.51/kg; US$14,507/t) as fresh deliveries into LME warehouses helped relieve the immediate shortage. Cash-to-three-month backwardation, which had blown out beyond US$500/t intraday at the peak, narrowed to about US$127/t by Tuesday’s close.\nA firmer US dollar and profit-taking also weighed on prices into the weekend. Even so, copper remains up more than 47% year-to-date, underscoring that the market has only marginally loosened.\nMacro Issues\nGeopolitical disruption remains a direct force on copper fundamentals. The Iran conflict has disrupted roughly half of global sulphur supply, a critical input for SX-EW cathode production in Chile and Peru, while longer Cape of Good Hope routings are adding an estimated 20–30% to freight costs on affected trades.\nThe Democratic Republic of Congo’s concentrate export ban, in place since June, continues to remove a significant volume of material from seaborne markets. In Indonesia, PT Smelting’s Gresik plant, offline since 8 August for furnace repairs, is still withholding about 342,000 tonnes of annual cathode capacity.\nChile also remains below expectations, with production stuck near 5.5 million tonnes against a 6-million-tonne target. Antofagasta has cut 2026 guidance by 5%, while Codelco has pushed its Andes Norte expansion to 2029.\nAnalysts are increasingly describing this as an accelerating deglobalisation of critical-minerals supply chains, in which exchange stock movements reflect trade-policy positioning as much as physical scarcity or genuine demand growth. That distinction matters, because it suggests current prices are being driven by both real tightness and policy distortion.\nMacro and Regional Themes\nThe unresolved US Section 232 decision on refined cathode remains the main near-term swing factor. Washington missed its 30 June deadline, but imports have continued because the premium for US copper over London prices keeps the arbitrage open.\nJuly brought more than 200,000 tonnes of copper into US ports, the largest monthly inflow since IHS Markit records began in 2014. COMEX registered stocks have now climbed past 675,000 tonnes, up roughly eightfold since February 2025 after 46 consecutive daily builds.\nReports continue to circulate around possible duties of 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% from 2028, though nothing has been confirmed. As a result, the COMEX-LME spread is increasingly being read as a measure of tariff risk rather than a pure fundamentals signal.\nChina’s demand indicators are softening. Cathode rod operating rates fell to 58.89%, down 3.67 percentage points week-on-week, while the Yangshan import premium narrowed as elevated domestic prices curbed buying appetite. Australian and Chilean producers nonetheless continue to benefit from strong US-dollar copper prices, with the firmer US dollar adding a further currency tailwind.\nPrices: Supply and Demand\nAnalyst forecasts remain widely dispersed, and for good reason: every price view is highly sensitive to tariff timing, US stockpiling and the durability of current supply disruptions.\n\nGoldman Sachs Research    US$13,735/t (YE 2026); about US$13,800/t (2027 average)    \nWood Mackenzie    US$13,200–13,800/t    \nUBS    US$14,000/t (Sep 2026); US$15,500/t (Jun 2027)    \nCiti    US$14,500–15,000/t (12-month)    Aug 2026    \nFitch Solutions    US$12,500/t (2026 average); US$11,000/t (2027 average)    \nCRU    Revised from +639,000t surplus toward balanced/deficit    \nICSG    About 150,000t deficit in 2026    2026    \nThe spread between Fitch’s relatively conservative forecast and Citi’s more bullish 12-month view highlights just how policy-sensitive this market remains.\n\nSupply and Demand Outlook\nStructural tightness on the mine-supply side remains intact. Treatment and refining charges are at or below zero, and Antofagasta has reportedly agreed zero processing charges with a Chinese smelter for 2026, squeezing smelter margins and prompting output cuts where concentrate cannot be processed economically.\nHigher prices are lifting capital spending, but new supply from major projects such as Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula is not expected to reach full capacity before 2028. Near-term supply relief therefore remains limited.\nOn the demand side, this year’s large exchange-stock builds still look more like tariff-driven stockpiling than a genuine acceleration in consumption, particularly with Chinese fabrication indicators softening. The practical read-through is straightforward: copper remains structurally tight, but current prices are being amplified by policy uncertainty, stock positioning and geopolitical disruption. Until Washington rules on refined-copper tariffs, volatility is likely to remain high.\nConnectOre\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital knowledge platform, bringing together technology, research and practical industry insight from across the copper value chain. It supports collaboration on issues including zero-emission mining, processing efficiency, automation, water, tailings and sustainability themes already moving to the centre of sector strategy.\nIn the current market, that role is increasingly relevant: operational knowledge and technology adoption matter more when supply chains are tighter, costs are rising and project execution risk is increasing.\nGo to: connectore.org\nSources\nAustralian Financial Review; Financial Times; The New York Times; The Economist; Reuters Commodities; Bloomberg Commodities & Metals; CNBC; CRU; Wood Mackenzie; ICSG; Goldman Sachs Research; Morgan Stanley Research; UBS; LME; COMEX; Trading Economics; MINING.com\n","text":"\nCopper traded at record territory this week before easing as the acute LME physical squeeze began to unwind. The market remains exceptionally tight, but pricing is being shaped as much by tariff positioning, exchange-stock movements and geopolitical disruption as by underlying demand.\n\n\n**Market Overview**\n\nCOMEX September copper reached an all-time high of US$6.7775/lb (US$14.94/kg; US$14,940/t) on Wednesday 26 August, after Tuesday’s record settlement of US$6.7140/lb. LME three-month copper touched US$14,251/t, just below January’s record of US$14,527.50/t.\nBy Thursday 27 August, COMEX had eased about 1.6% to around US$6.58/lb (US$14.51/kg; US$14,507/t) as fresh deliveries into LME warehouses helped relieve the immediate shortage. Cash-to-three-month backwardation, which had blown out beyond US$500/t intraday at the peak, narrowed to about US$127/t by Tuesday’s close.\nA firmer US dollar and profit-taking also weighed on prices into the weekend. Even so, copper remains up more than 47% year-to-date, underscoring that the market has only marginally loosened.\n\n\n**Macro Issues**\n\nGeopolitical disruption remains a direct force on copper fundamentals. The Iran conflict has disrupted roughly half of global sulphur supply, a critical input for SX-EW cathode production in Chile and Peru, while longer Cape of Good Hope routings are adding an estimated 20–30% to freight costs on affected trades.\nThe Democratic Republic of Congo’s concentrate export ban, in place since June, continues to remove a significant volume of material from seaborne markets. In Indonesia, PT Smelting’s Gresik plant, offline since 8 August for furnace repairs, is still withholding about 342,000 tonnes of annual cathode capacity.\nChile also remains below expectations, with production stuck near 5.5 million tonnes against a 6-million-tonne target. Antofagasta has cut 2026 guidance by 5%, while Codelco has pushed its Andes Norte expansion to 2029.\nAnalysts are increasingly describing this as an accelerating deglobalisation of critical-minerals supply chains, in which exchange stock movements reflect trade-policy positioning as much as physical scarcity or genuine demand growth. That distinction matters, because it suggests current prices are being driven by both real tightness and policy distortion.\n\n\n**Macro and Regional Themes**\n\nThe unresolved US Section 232 decision on refined cathode remains the main near-term swing factor. Washington missed its 30 June deadline, but imports have continued because the premium for US copper over London prices keeps the arbitrage open.\nJuly brought more than 200,000 tonnes of copper into US ports, the largest monthly inflow since IHS Markit records began in 2014. COMEX registered stocks have now climbed past 675,000 tonnes, up roughly eightfold since February 2025 after 46 consecutive daily builds.\nReports continue to circulate around possible duties of 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% from 2028, though nothing has been confirmed. As a result, the COMEX-LME spread is increasingly being read as a measure of tariff risk rather than a pure fundamentals signal.\nChina’s demand indicators are softening. Cathode rod operating rates fell to 58.89%, down 3.67 percentage points week-on-week, while the Yangshan import premium narrowed as elevated domestic prices curbed buying appetite. Australian and Chilean producers nonetheless continue to benefit from strong US-dollar copper prices, with the firmer US dollar adding a further currency tailwind.\n\n\n**Prices: Supply and Demand**\n\nAnalyst forecasts remain widely dispersed, and for good reason: every price view is highly sensitive to tariff timing, US stockpiling and the durability of current supply disruptions.\n\n* Goldman Sachs Research\tUS$13,735/t (YE 2026); about US$13,800/t (2027 average)\t\n* Wood Mackenzie\tUS$13,200–13,800/t\t\n* UBS\tUS$14,000/t (Sep 2026); US$15,500/t (Jun 2027)\t\n* Citi\tUS$14,500–15,000/t (12-month)\tAug 2026\t\n* Fitch Solutions\tUS$12,500/t (2026 average); US$11,000/t (2027 average)\t\n* CRU\tRevised from +639,000t surplus toward balanced/deficit\t\n* ICSG\tAbout 150,000t deficit in 2026\t2026\t\n*\nThe spread between Fitch’s relatively conservative forecast and Citi’s more bullish 12-month view highlights just how policy-sensitive this market remains.\n\n\n**Supply and Demand Outlook**\n\nStructural tightness on the mine-supply side remains intact. Treatment and refining charges are at or below zero, and Antofagasta has reportedly agreed zero processing charges with a Chinese smelter for 2026, squeezing smelter margins and prompting output cuts where concentrate cannot be processed economically.\nHigher prices are lifting capital spending, but new supply from major projects such as Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula is not expected to reach full capacity before 2028. Near-term supply relief therefore remains limited.\nOn the demand side, this year’s large exchange-stock builds still look more like tariff-driven stockpiling than a genuine acceleration in consumption, particularly with Chinese fabrication indicators softening. The practical read-through is straightforward: copper remains structurally tight, but current prices are being amplified by policy uncertainty, stock positioning and geopolitical disruption. Until Washington rules on refined-copper tariffs, volatility is likely to remain high.\n\n\n**ConnectOre**\n\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital knowledge platform, bringing together technology, research and practical industry insight from across the copper value chain. It supports collaboration on issues including zero-emission mining, processing efficiency, automation, water, tailings and sustainability themes already moving to the centre of sector strategy.\nIn the current market, that role is increasingly relevant: operational knowledge and technology adoption matter more when supply chains are tighter, costs are rising and project execution risk is increasing.\n**Go to: connectore.org**\n\n**Sources**\nAustralian Financial Review; Financial Times; The New York Times; The Economist; Reuters Commodities; Bloomberg Commodities & Metals; CNBC; CRU; Wood Mackenzie; ICSG; Goldman Sachs Research; Morgan Stanley Research; UBS; LME; COMEX; Trading Economics; MINING.com\n"},"openGraph":{"title":null,"description":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief\nWeek Ending 28 August 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":{"name":"Terms of Use","title":null,"slug":"terms-of-use","path":"/terms-of-use"},"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-07-31T04:44:47.80","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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