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Three-month LME copper eased to around US$13.89/kg (US$13,888/t) by Thursday — its lowest level since 3 August — as on-warrant stockpiles rebounded sharply after a 42-session drawdown that had taken available inventory down roughly 75% from its mid-April peak. The cash-to-three-month backwardation, which had spiked above US$0.54/kg (US$545/t) mid-week — a level not seen since the 2021 squeeze that forced LME intervention — narrowed to around US$0.18/kg (US$176/t) by Thursday as trading houses, Trafigura among them, delivered metal into New Orleans and London warehouses. \nCOMEX copper held firmer at around US$14.31/kg (US$14,310/t, US$6.49/lb), with registered US inventories climbing to a record 670,000 tonnes — up roughly eightfold since February 2025 — as tariff-related stockpiling continues to draw metal out of the rest of the world's exchange system.\nMacro Issues\nThe Iran war remains the dominant macro overlay on the copper complex. Five months after the April ceasefire, which has since been breached repeatedly by both sides and extended twice — most recently under a 12/17 June memorandum — the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively contested, with Iran reportedly levying transit tolls exceeding US$1 million per vessel and forcing costlier Cape of Good Hope routings that add 10–15 days and 20–30% to freight costs. \nThe conflict has disrupted roughly half of global elemental sulphur supply, threatening the sulphuric acid feedstock that underpins solvent-extraction/electrowinning (SX-EW) production, which accounts for 17–25% of global refined copper output; Codelco estimates the disruption is already adding close to 5% to its production costs. \nLayered on top are the Democratic Republic of Congo's concentrate export ban, in place since late June, and the outage at Freeport-McMoRan's Gresik smelter in Indonesia since 8 August, which has removed an estimated 340,000–400,000 tonnes of annual cathode capacity. \nThe Financial Times and The Economist have both framed these overlapping shocks as evidence of an accelerating deglobalisation of critical-minerals supply chains, rather than a single one-off event.\nMacro and Regional Themes\nThe week's dominant new theme was tariff timing. The US Commerce Department missed its statutory 30 June deadline to recommend whether the existing 50% Section 232 tariff — currently applied only to semi-fabricated products such as pipe, tube, rod, wire and cable — should be extended to refined cathode, and no White House decision had been announced as at Thursday.\nThat vacuum is fuelling speculation on US trading desks: a number now believe a decision, and possibly implementation, could land before year-end, ahead of the phased-from-2027 timeline that research houses such as ING and Société Générale still treat as their base case (Société Générale puts only a 14.6% probability on a 15% tariff being in force by 1 January 2027). \nBloomberg and CNBC's commodities coverage both describe the widening COMEX-LME spread — still near US$0.40–0.45/kg (US$400–450/t) — as having become a real-time gauge of that policy risk, and it is the reason July's US copper imports topped 200,000 tonnes, the strongest month in twelve years.\nIn China, the Yangshan import premium has narrowed as elevated domestic prices dent buying appetite, while closer to home the AUD and ASX-listed copper producers remain tightly correlated to the LME price given the sector's export exposure.\nPrices: Supply and Demand\nAnalyst forecasts remain unusually dispersed for a market this deep into its cycle. Goldman Sachs has lifted its year-end 2026 LME target to US$13.74/kg (US$13,735/t) from US$12.47/kg (US$12,465/t), while still flagging a plausible 490,000-tonne 2026 surplus and pointing to a longer-run 2035 target of US$15.00/kg (US$15,000/t). \nMorgan Stanley's most recent published base case — US$10.65/kg (US$10,650/t), with a bull case of US$12.78/kg (US$12,780/t) and a projected 590,000-tonne 2026 deficit — has already been overtaken by the spot price, underlining how far tariff-driven flows have outrun fundamentals-based modelling. UBS's US$13.23/kg (US$13,228/t) target now looks conservative too.\nThe tension worth stressing this week is that record exchange stock movements are not being driven by demand growth. Both the US and China have effectively been drawing down available inventory — the US via tariff-anticipation stockpiling into COMEX, China via a scramble for concentrate following the DRC ban — even as underlying consumption looks soft: China's copper cathode rod operating rate slipped to 58.89% (down 3.67 percentage points week-on-week), and Wood Mackenzie's 4 August review shifted its full-year 2026 call to a modest global surplus. \nIn other words, the removal of stock from visible inventory looks like a trade-flow and positioning story as much as a scarcity one, and it is that mechanical effect — not a demand shock — that is putting the more immediate pressure on price.\nSupply and Demand Outlook\nBeneath the near-term noise, the structural supply case CRU and Wood Mackenzie have been building through 2026 remains intact. CRU data shows spot treatment charges have collapsed from around US$21/t to effectively zero, evidence that concentrate supply remains structurally tight regardless of this week's exchange gyrations. \nWood Mackenzie estimates capital expenditure among the fourteen largest miners has roughly doubled since 2017 to near US$60 billion, with copper-specific capex up around 40% — much of it debt-funded — reflecting a decade of investor-enforced capital discipline rather than genuine resource scarcity. \nOn demand, Goldman Sachs continues to expect grid infrastructure investment to generate more than 60% of copper demand growth to 2030, with EVs, renewables and AI-related data-centre build-out also intact as structural drivers, even as cyclical Chinese manufacturing demand softens. \nThe ICSG's own 2026 balance estimates continue to swing between a modest surplus and a 150,000-tonne deficit depending on how quickly Congo and Indonesian supply is restored — underscoring that the physical market remains only lightly out of balance even as price volatility, driven by tariff positioning and geopolitical risk, stays elevated. The next major catalyst is likely to be Washington's tariff decision itself, whenever it lands.\nSources\nAustralian Financial Review · Financial Times · The New York Times · The Economist · Reuters Commodities · Bloomberg Commodities & Metals · CNBC · CRU · Wood Mackenzie · ICSG · Goldman Sachs Research · Morgan Stanley Research · UBS · ING · Société Générale · LME and COMEX benchmark data via Trading Economics\n","text":"Copper's week was defined by the unwinding of a historic London Metal Exchange squeeze, a still-unresolved decision on whether US tariffs will be extended to refined cathode, and a widening gap between where metal is physically sitting and where genuine demand actually stands. Prices below are quoted in US dollars per kilogram (US$/kg) and per tonne (US$/t) for comparison.\n\nMarket Overview\n\nCopper spent the week unwinding one of the sharpest physical squeezes the LME has seen in years. Three-month LME copper eased to around US$13.89/kg (US$13,888/t) by Thursday — its lowest level since 3 August — as on-warrant stockpiles rebounded sharply after a 42-session drawdown that had taken available inventory down roughly 75% from its mid-April peak. The cash-to-three-month backwardation, which had spiked above US$0.54/kg (US$545/t) mid-week — a level not seen since the 2021 squeeze that forced LME intervention — narrowed to around US$0.18/kg (US$176/t) by Thursday as trading houses, Trafigura among them, delivered metal into New Orleans and London warehouses. \n\nCOMEX copper held firmer at around US$14.31/kg (US$14,310/t, US$6.49/lb), with registered US inventories climbing to a record 670,000 tonnes — up roughly eightfold since February 2025 — as tariff-related stockpiling continues to draw metal out of the rest of the world's exchange system.\n\n**Macro Issues**\n\nThe Iran war remains the dominant macro overlay on the copper complex. Five months after the April ceasefire, which has since been breached repeatedly by both sides and extended twice — most recently under a 12/17 June memorandum — the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively contested, with Iran reportedly levying transit tolls exceeding US$1 million per vessel and forcing costlier Cape of Good Hope routings that add 10–15 days and 20–30% to freight costs. \nThe conflict has disrupted roughly half of global elemental sulphur supply, threatening the sulphuric acid feedstock that underpins solvent-extraction/electrowinning (SX-EW) production, which accounts for 17–25% of global refined copper output; Codelco estimates the disruption is already adding close to 5% to its production costs. \nLayered on top are the Democratic Republic of Congo's concentrate export ban, in place since late June, and the outage at Freeport-McMoRan's Gresik smelter in Indonesia since 8 August, which has removed an estimated 340,000–400,000 tonnes of annual cathode capacity. \nThe Financial Times and The Economist have both framed these overlapping shocks as evidence of an accelerating deglobalisation of critical-minerals supply chains, rather than a single one-off event.\n\n**Macro and Regional Themes**\n\nThe week's dominant new theme was tariff timing. The US Commerce Department missed its statutory 30 June deadline to recommend whether the existing 50% Section 232 tariff — currently applied only to semi-fabricated products such as pipe, tube, rod, wire and cable — should be extended to refined cathode, and no White House decision had been announced as at Thursday.\nThat vacuum is fuelling speculation on US trading desks: a number now believe a decision, and possibly implementation, could land before year-end, ahead of the phased-from-2027 timeline that research houses such as ING and Société Générale still treat as their base case (Société Générale puts only a 14.6% probability on a 15% tariff being in force by 1 January 2027). \nBloomberg and CNBC's commodities coverage both describe the widening COMEX-LME spread — still near US$0.40–0.45/kg (US$400–450/t) — as having become a real-time gauge of that policy risk, and it is the reason July's US copper imports topped 200,000 tonnes, the strongest month in twelve years.\nIn China, the Yangshan import premium has narrowed as elevated domestic prices dent buying appetite, while closer to home the AUD and ASX-listed copper producers remain tightly correlated to the LME price given the sector's export exposure.\n\n**Prices: Supply and Demand**\n\nAnalyst forecasts remain unusually dispersed for a market this deep into its cycle. Goldman Sachs has lifted its year-end 2026 LME target to US$13.74/kg (US$13,735/t) from US$12.47/kg (US$12,465/t), while still flagging a plausible 490,000-tonne 2026 surplus and pointing to a longer-run 2035 target of US$15.00/kg (US$15,000/t). \nMorgan Stanley's most recent published base case — US$10.65/kg (US$10,650/t), with a bull case of US$12.78/kg (US$12,780/t) and a projected 590,000-tonne 2026 deficit — has already been overtaken by the spot price, underlining how far tariff-driven flows have outrun fundamentals-based modelling. UBS's US$13.23/kg (US$13,228/t) target now looks conservative too.\nThe tension worth stressing this week is that record exchange stock movements are not being driven by demand growth. Both the US and China have effectively been drawing down available inventory — the US via tariff-anticipation stockpiling into COMEX, China via a scramble for concentrate following the DRC ban — even as underlying consumption looks soft: China's copper cathode rod operating rate slipped to 58.89% (down 3.67 percentage points week-on-week), and Wood Mackenzie's 4 August review shifted its full-year 2026 call to a modest global surplus. \n\nIn other words, the removal of stock from visible inventory looks like a trade-flow and positioning story as much as a scarcity one, and it is that mechanical effect — not a demand shock — that is putting the more immediate pressure on price.\n\n\n**Supply and Demand Outlook**\n\nBeneath the near-term noise, the structural supply case CRU and Wood Mackenzie have been building through 2026 remains intact. CRU data shows spot treatment charges have collapsed from around US$21/t to effectively zero, evidence that concentrate supply remains structurally tight regardless of this week's exchange gyrations. \nWood Mackenzie estimates capital expenditure among the fourteen largest miners has roughly doubled since 2017 to near US$60 billion, with copper-specific capex up around 40% — much of it debt-funded — reflecting a decade of investor-enforced capital discipline rather than genuine resource scarcity. \nOn demand, Goldman Sachs continues to expect grid infrastructure investment to generate more than 60% of copper demand growth to 2030, with EVs, renewables and AI-related data-centre build-out also intact as structural drivers, even as cyclical Chinese manufacturing demand softens. \nThe ICSG's own 2026 balance estimates continue to swing between a modest surplus and a 150,000-tonne deficit depending on how quickly Congo and Indonesian supply is restored — underscoring that the physical market remains only lightly out of balance even as price volatility, driven by tariff positioning and geopolitical risk, stays elevated. The next major catalyst is likely to be Washington's tariff decision itself, whenever it lands.\n\n**Sources**\n\nAustralian Financial Review · Financial Times · The New York Times · The Economist · Reuters Commodities · Bloomberg Commodities & Metals · CNBC · CRU · Wood Mackenzie · ICSG · Goldman Sachs Research · Morgan Stanley Research · UBS · ING · Société Générale · LME and COMEX benchmark data via Trading Economics\n"},"openGraph":{"title":null,"description":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief - 2****1st August 2026\n"},"image":{"thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1787278526/copper-connect/banner/copper-weekly-brief-21-august-2026_image__Cu_Weekly_Brief_21082026_dn239o.png"}}}},"intro":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief - 2****1st August 2026\n","text":"Copper Weekly Brief - 2****1st August 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":{"name":"Terms of Use","title":null,"slug":"terms-of-use","path":"/terms-of-use"},"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-07-31T04:44:47.80","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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