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London Metal Exchange three-month copper held the US$14,000/t (US$14.00/kg, US$6.35/lb) level it broke through last week, settling near US$14,195/t (US$14.20/kg, US$6.44/lb); Bloomberg's 10 August headline, “Copper Holds $14,000,” attributed the resilience mainly to a softer US interest-rate outlook rather than fresh industrial demand. The Financial Times and Reuters have both framed the London-New York divergence as a tariff-arbitrage story rather than a demand story, a reading the inventory data below supports. Cash metal on the LME traded roughly US$138–148/t above the three-month price — the widest backwardation since October — which, cross-checked across both exchanges, points to genuine physical scarcity rather than pure speculation. With prices lurching between fresh records and sharp pullbacks inside the same fortnight, the market looks to be entering a phase of volatile troughs and peaks rather than a smooth climb, a pattern several desks expect to persist as tariff, supply and rate headlines collide.\nMacro pressure\nThe Democratic Republic of Congo's concentrate export ban, in force since late June, continues to unsettle the market, and two fresh shocks have layered on top of it. First, a boiler leak forced Freeport-Mitsubishi's Gresik smelter in Indonesia offline on 8 August; estimates of the affected cathode capacity range from roughly 340,000 to 400,000 tonnes a year depending on whether the adjoining Manyar plant is included, a discrepancy worth flagging given how thin published detail still is. Second, the Strait of Hormuz crisis is now hitting the cost side of the industry rather than the price side. With tanker flows through the strait reduced to a trickle, US diesel is trading near US$5/gallon and Australian diesel is up almost 49% to A$2.46/litre. Because energy accounts for roughly 22.7% of copper's cash costs, and every 10% rise in oil prices is estimated to add about 3.5% to mining costs, a sustained disruption could lift all-in costs by mid-teens percentages at US$100/barrel oil — enough to curtail marginal, diesel-intensive open pits well before it shows up in production data. The Economist's running “copper supercycle” commentary situates both the Congo ban and the Hormuz shock within a broader deglobalisation of critical-mineral supply chains, while the New York Times has kept its coverage anchored to the US tariff and industrial-policy debate — copper as a test of whether tariffs re-shore refining capacity or simply relocate stockpiles. Morgan Stanley separately points to a weakening US dollar, alongside supply disruptions at Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente and Grasberg, as the structural reasons its desk remains constructive on price.\nRegional signals\nUS warehouses remain the standout regional story. COMEX inventories have risen roughly eightfold since February 2025, from about 80,000 tonnes to a record ~650,000 tonnes, as traders position ahead of tariff decisions, while LME-registered stock has moved the other way, down to roughly 218,000–223,000 tonnes from over 300,000 tonnes in early July. Cross-checked across Trading Economics, COMEX and LME figures, that divergence means a very large share of global “free” copper stock now sits behind the US tariff wall rather than being available to the rest of the world — arguably a bigger driver of the LME's physical tightness this week than any underlying demand surge. The Australian Financial Review's domestic angle has focused on what a stronger-for-longer copper price means for ASX-listed producers and the Australian dollar, historically a reliable “copper proxy” currency. In China, elevated prices have started to bite: the Yangshan import premium has narrowed from US$115/t to US$96/t, and Codelco has walked back its 1.34-million-tonne 2026 production target. More strikingly, there is now measurable evidence of substitution at the margin — Chinese cable and wire manufacturers are reported to be substituting aluminium for copper in low- and medium-voltage power cable and automotive wiring as the copper-aluminium price ratio widens, consistent with the historical pattern of demand destruction above roughly US$13/kg (about US$5.90/lb).\nPrice structure\nForecasts remain unusually dispersed. UBS's upgraded 2026 call of about US$6.00/lb (US$13.23/kg, US$13,228/t) already looks conservative against spot. Goldman Sachs has lifted its year-end 2026 LME target to US$13,735/t (US$13.74/kg, US$6.23/lb) from US$12,465/t (US$12.47/kg, US$5.65/lb), contingent on the refined-copper tariff taking full effect, and flags a possible 640,000-tonne deficit outside the US — even as the International Copper Study Group's own estimates swing between a modest global surplus and a 150,000-tonne deficit for 2026. That dispersion is really a debate about causation. Is copper “high” because the market has concluded we have reached, or are approaching, peak mine supply — as some “peak copper” commentary now argues — or is it a narrower, largely US-based story about tariff positioning and a thin LME free float? Cross-referencing Goldman, UBS and the exchange data suggests both are partly true: near-term pricing is dominated by tariff and inventory mechanics, but banks' willingness to keep lifting long-run 2030–2035 price and incentive assumptions — Goldman's US$15,000/t (US$15.00/kg) 2035 case among them — shows real money is also betting that a market broadly balanced or in modest surplus today will face a genuine supply gap in three to five years. That, more than this week's headlines, looks like the more durable reason long-dated copper futures and equities are being bid.\nSupply and Demand\nWood Mackenzie's review of 14 major miners shows combined capital expenditure roughly doubling from US$30 billion in 2017 to a projected US$60 billion in 2025, with copper-focused capex up 40% and partly funded by US$19 billion of fresh debt — a sharp reversal of the “returns over growth” capital discipline that dominated roughly the 2013–2023 decade, and one Wood Mackenzie links directly to today's thin project pipeline. CRU's mid-year data reinforces the point from the concentrate side: treatment charges have collapsed from around US$21/mt to effectively US$0/mt, pushing miners and smelters toward index-linked pricing — evidence that concentrate supply, not just refined metal, is structurally tight. None of this changes the medium-term demand case: grid investment, EVs, renewables and AI-driven data-centre build-out remain intact structural drivers, and Goldman still expects grid infrastructure alone to generate over 60% of demand growth to 2030. The read-through on capital discipline is that a decade of investor-enforced restraint, more than any lack of resource, is the more persuasive explanation for why supply cannot yet meet that demand — and why, even with prices at record highs and volatility rising, few in the industry expect the incentive to invest to fade soon.\nSources: Australian Financial Review; Financial Times; The New York Times; Wood Mackenzie; CRU Group; The Economist; London Metal Exchange (LME); COMEX; Trading Economics; Reuters; Bloomberg; Goldman Sachs Research; Morgan Stanley Research.\n","text":"\n**Market setting**\n\nCopper spent the week consolidating after last week's record spike, when COMEX copper touched an all-time high of US$6.90/lb (US$15.21/kg, US$15,212/t) on 6 August. Trading Economics and wire pricing show the most-active COMEX contract easing back into a US$6.58–6.70/lb band (US$14.51–14.77/kg, roughly US$14,510–14,770/t) through the week to 13 August, with the metal still up about 47% year-on-year. London Metal Exchange three-month copper held the US$14,000/t (US$14.00/kg, US$6.35/lb) level it broke through last week, settling near US$14,195/t (US$14.20/kg, US$6.44/lb); Bloomberg's 10 August headline, “Copper Holds $14,000,” attributed the resilience mainly to a softer US interest-rate outlook rather than fresh industrial demand. The Financial Times and Reuters have both framed the London-New York divergence as a tariff-arbitrage story rather than a demand story, a reading the inventory data below supports. Cash metal on the LME traded roughly US$138–148/t above the three-month price — the widest backwardation since October — which, cross-checked across both exchanges, points to genuine physical scarcity rather than pure speculation. With prices lurching between fresh records and sharp pullbacks inside the same fortnight, the market looks to be entering a phase of volatile troughs and peaks rather than a smooth climb, a pattern several desks expect to persist as tariff, supply and rate headlines collide.\n\n**Macro pressure**\n\nThe Democratic Republic of Congo's concentrate export ban, in force since late June, continues to unsettle the market, and two fresh shocks have layered on top of it. First, a boiler leak forced Freeport-Mitsubishi's Gresik smelter in Indonesia offline on 8 August; estimates of the affected cathode capacity range from roughly 340,000 to 400,000 tonnes a year depending on whether the adjoining Manyar plant is included, a discrepancy worth flagging given how thin published detail still is. Second, the Strait of Hormuz crisis is now hitting the cost side of the industry rather than the price side. With tanker flows through the strait reduced to a trickle, US diesel is trading near US$5/gallon and Australian diesel is up almost 49% to A$2.46/litre. Because energy accounts for roughly 22.7% of copper's cash costs, and every 10% rise in oil prices is estimated to add about 3.5% to mining costs, a sustained disruption could lift all-in costs by mid-teens percentages at US$100/barrel oil — enough to curtail marginal, diesel-intensive open pits well before it shows up in production data. The Economist's running “copper supercycle” commentary situates both the Congo ban and the Hormuz shock within a broader deglobalisation of critical-mineral supply chains, while the New York Times has kept its coverage anchored to the US tariff and industrial-policy debate — copper as a test of whether tariffs re-shore refining capacity or simply relocate stockpiles. Morgan Stanley separately points to a weakening US dollar, alongside supply disruptions at Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente and Grasberg, as the structural reasons its desk remains constructive on price.\n\n\n**Regional signals**\n\nUS warehouses remain the standout regional story. COMEX inventories have risen roughly eightfold since February 2025, from about 80,000 tonnes to a record ~650,000 tonnes, as traders position ahead of tariff decisions, while LME-registered stock has moved the other way, down to roughly 218,000–223,000 tonnes from over 300,000 tonnes in early July. Cross-checked across Trading Economics, COMEX and LME figures, that divergence means a very large share of global “free” copper stock now sits behind the US tariff wall rather than being available to the rest of the world — arguably a bigger driver of the LME's physical tightness this week than any underlying demand surge. The Australian Financial Review's domestic angle has focused on what a stronger-for-longer copper price means for ASX-listed producers and the Australian dollar, historically a reliable “copper proxy” currency. In China, elevated prices have started to bite: the Yangshan import premium has narrowed from US$115/t to US$96/t, and Codelco has walked back its 1.34-million-tonne 2026 production target. More strikingly, there is now measurable evidence of substitution at the margin — Chinese cable and wire manufacturers are reported to be substituting aluminium for copper in low- and medium-voltage power cable and automotive wiring as the copper-aluminium price ratio widens, consistent with the historical pattern of demand destruction above roughly US$13/kg (about US$5.90/lb).\n\n**Price structure**\n\nForecasts remain unusually dispersed. UBS's upgraded 2026 call of about US$6.00/lb (US$13.23/kg, US$13,228/t) already looks conservative against spot. Goldman Sachs has lifted its year-end 2026 LME target to US$13,735/t (US$13.74/kg, US$6.23/lb) from US$12,465/t (US$12.47/kg, US$5.65/lb), contingent on the refined-copper tariff taking full effect, and flags a possible 640,000-tonne deficit outside the US — even as the International Copper Study Group's own estimates swing between a modest global surplus and a 150,000-tonne deficit for 2026. That dispersion is really a debate about causation. Is copper “high” because the market has concluded we have reached, or are approaching, peak mine supply — as some “peak copper” commentary now argues — or is it a narrower, largely US-based story about tariff positioning and a thin LME free float? Cross-referencing Goldman, UBS and the exchange data suggests both are partly true: near-term pricing is dominated by tariff and inventory mechanics, but banks' willingness to keep lifting long-run 2030–2035 price and incentive assumptions — Goldman's US$15,000/t (US$15.00/kg) 2035 case among them — shows real money is also betting that a market broadly balanced or in modest surplus today will face a genuine supply gap in three to five years. That, more than this week's headlines, looks like the more durable reason long-dated copper futures and equities are being bid.\n\n\n**Supply and Demand**\n\nWood Mackenzie's review of 14 major miners shows combined capital expenditure roughly doubling from US$30 billion in 2017 to a projected US$60 billion in 2025, with copper-focused capex up 40% and partly funded by US$19 billion of fresh debt — a sharp reversal of the “returns over growth” capital discipline that dominated roughly the 2013–2023 decade, and one Wood Mackenzie links directly to today's thin project pipeline. CRU's mid-year data reinforces the point from the concentrate side: treatment charges have collapsed from around US$21/mt to effectively US$0/mt, pushing miners and smelters toward index-linked pricing — evidence that concentrate supply, not just refined metal, is structurally tight. None of this changes the medium-term demand case: grid investment, EVs, renewables and AI-driven data-centre build-out remain intact structural drivers, and Goldman still expects grid infrastructure alone to generate over 60% of demand growth to 2030. The read-through on capital discipline is that a decade of investor-enforced restraint, more than any lack of resource, is the more persuasive explanation for why supply cannot yet meet that demand — and why, even with prices at record highs and volatility rising, few in the industry expect the incentive to invest to fade soon.\n\nSources: Australian Financial Review; Financial Times; The New York Times; Wood Mackenzie; CRU Group; The Economist; London Metal Exchange (LME); COMEX; Trading Economics; Reuters; Bloomberg; Goldman Sachs Research; Morgan Stanley Research.\n\n"},"openGraph":{"title":"Copper Weekly Brief - 14th August 2026","description":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief\nWeek Ending 14 August 2026\n"},"image":{"thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1786670563/copper-connect/banner/copper-weekly-brief-14082026_image__Cu_Weekly_brief_-_14082026_wxebrw.png"}}}},"intro":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief\nWeek Ending 14 August 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":{"name":"Terms of Use","title":null,"slug":"terms-of-use","path":"/terms-of-use"},"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-07-31T04:44:47.80","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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