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Trading Economics reports COMEX copper futures at about 6.37 USD/lb on 11 June, equivalent to roughly 14,050 USD/t or 14.05 USD/kg, maintaining a sizeable US premium over the LME benchmark.¹\nPrice drivers and near term outlook\nUBS’s Chief Investment Office notes that LME copper briefly exceeded 14,000 USD/t in May, driven by a combination of sulfur shortages, tight scrap and concentrate supply in China, and ongoing mine disruptions. Those same constraints remain in place but are now interacting with softer macro signals and elevated inventories, producing more range bound trade in early June.\nLooking ahead, UBS  forecasts LME copper at 14,000 USD/t in September 2026, 14,500 USD/t in December 2026, 15,000 USD/t in March 2027 and 15,500 USD/t by end June 2027, implying a steady step up in prices as the market deficit deepens. UBS Global Research has separately lifted its medium term deck to 6.0 USD/lb (13,200 USD/t, 13.2 USD/kg) for 2027–29 and its long term incentive price to 5.50 USD/lb (about 12,100 USD/t, 12.1 USD/kg), arguing that this is the level required to bring through 6–7 Mt of new mine supply by 2035.\nSupply, demand and inventories\nUBS continues to project a refined copper market deficit of about 520,000 t in 2026, widening from an estimated 203,000 t deficit in 2025. On the demand side, global copper consumption is expected to grow by around 2.8% in 2026, led by grid investment, EVs, renewables and continued build out of data centres. UBS’s global work highlights that end use growth of 2–3% per year on a 35 Mt demand base requires 700–1,050 kt of new copper annually—well ahead of the 1% mine supply growth expected for 2026.\nRefined supply is still being supported by strong Chinese smelter output and growing scrap utilisation, even as the concentrate market tightens sharply. UBS estimates global refined production growth of about 1.7% in 2026, implying that inventories will only start to trend lower as deficits accumulate in 2027–28.\nInventory trends remain divergent across regions. SHFE tracked copper stocks in Shanghai have fallen by roughly 178,500 t since end March as Chinese buyers restocked on earlier price weakness and seasonal demand from the power sector kicked in. By contrast, COMEX inventories have risen by roughly 38,000 t since late Q1 and now sit around record levels near 570,000 t, reflecting pre emptive US restocking ahead of possible 2027–28 tariffs on refined copper. LME on warrant stocks have climbed by about 35,000 t this year to near 400,000 t but have flattened out in recent weeks, leaving global visible inventories close to 1.2–1.25 Mt, or about 2.5 weeks of consumption.\nGeopolitics, war and policy\nThe Middle East conflict and the risk of renewed disruption in and around the Strait of Hormuz remain key macro overlays for copper, but so far they have not derailed the structural bull case. UBS notes that energy price volatility and heightened defence and infrastructure spending are, if anything, reinforcing the need for grid and renewable investment—both copper intensive sectors—even as they dampen parts of traditional manufacturing demand.\nUS trade policy is more immediately material for physical market flows. UBS CIO highlights that COMEX LME spreads have widened back out to around 200 USD/t, but remain insufficient on their own to redirect large volumes to the US given logistics and quality constraints. The US Department of Commerce is due to update its Section 232 recommendations by 30 June, following earlier proposals for phased tariffs on imported refined copper of 15% in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028; Bloomberg notes that the premium for US prices over the rest of the world has already expanded in anticipation.\nFurther out, UBS expects a more supportive permitting and fiscal environment for large copper projects in countries such as Chile, Argentina, the US and parts of Africa, but stresses that approvals remain well below what is needed to close the projected 6–7 Mt supply gap by 2035. This underpins their view—and that of other analysts cited in the Financial Times, Economist and CRU coverage—that copper will remain strategically tight even if cyclical headwinds emerge.\nImplications for mining companies\nFor existing producers, the current price environment remains highly cash generative. UBS’s Australia copper report calculates that its upgraded price deck for 2027–28 (6.0 USD/lb) lifts 2026–28 earnings by roughly 2–13% across ASX copper names and by up to 20% in some cases. On UBS estimates, copper now accounts for more than 50% of BHP’s FY27 EBITDA and around 30% for Rio Tinto, while pure play and copper leaning mid tiers such as Capstone and Sandfire trade at a premium EV/EBITDA multiple relative to diversified miners and gold producers.\nThe same report underscores the capital intensity challenge. UBS, using Wood Mackenzie data, puts average capex intensity for upcoming projects at roughly 26,500 USD per annual tonne of capacity, up sharply on earlier cycles, with multiple greenfield projects implying even higher costs. Their global analysis suggests that around 175 billion USD in real capex will be required by 2035 to deliver sufficient new copper supply, even after factoring in rising scrap recovery and incremental throughput at brownfield operations.\nFor Australian operations specifically, UBS reiterates that copper remains at the centre of this mining cycle, with domestic names positioned to benefit both from higher realized prices and from growing investor preference for “copper heavy” portfolios. However, they also flag execution risk around large expansions and the importance of discipline in bringing high capex projects such as Olympic Dam’s staged growth and South Australian hub developments to market.\nSupply, demand and price metrics (USD/t and USD/kg)\nUsing current and forecast benchmarks, the key reference points are:\n•    Spot LME (early–mid June): about 13,500–13,700 USD/t, equivalent to 13.5–13.7 USD/kg.\n•    COMEX (11 June close via Trading Economics/MarketWatch): around 6.37 USD/lb, or roughly 14,050 USD/t (14.05 USD/kg).\n•    UBS CIO forecasts (LME):\n•    Sep 2026: 14,000 USD/t (14.0 USD/kg)\n•    Dec 2026: 14,500 USD/t (14.5 USD/kg)\n•    Mar 2027: 15,000 USD/t (15.0 USD/kg)\n•    Jun 2027: 15,500 USD/t (15.5 USD/kg).\n•    UBS long term incentive price: 5.50 USD/lb ≈ 12,125 USD/t (12.1 USD/kg).\nThese price levels remain well above Wood Mackenzie’s estimate of the 90th–95th percentile fully loaded cost curve (around 3.5–4.0 USD/lb), meaning most incumbent mines are generating strong margins while new projects still require careful capital allocation.\nConnectOre and ICAA initiatives\nFor industry participants trying to navigate this “higher for longer” copper environment, ConnectOre and the ICAA’s broader work program continue to provide practical, collaborative tools.\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital platform that aggregates technology insights, project case studies and emerging research from across the copper value chain, with a particular focus on zero emissions mining and processing solutions. By combining member contributed knowledge with its Copper AI engine, the platform is designed to shorten the cycle between innovation, deployment and measurable emissions reductions at mine and plant level.\nGo to https://connectore.org \n","text":"**Market overview**\n\nCopper traded through the week-ending 12 June in the low to mid 13,000 USD/t range on the LME, below the brief spike above 14,000 USD/t seen in May but still more than 40% higher than a year ago. Trading Economics reports COMEX copper futures at about 6.37 USD/lb on 11 June, equivalent to roughly 14,050 USD/t or 14.05 USD/kg, maintaining a sizeable US premium over the LME benchmark.¹\n\n**Price drivers and near term outlook**\n\nUBS’s Chief Investment Office notes that LME copper briefly exceeded 14,000 USD/t in May, driven by a combination of sulfur shortages, tight scrap and concentrate supply in China, and ongoing mine disruptions. Those same constraints remain in place but are now interacting with softer macro signals and elevated inventories, producing more range bound trade in early June.\n\nLooking ahead, UBS  forecasts LME copper at 14,000 USD/t in September 2026, 14,500 USD/t in December 2026, 15,000 USD/t in March 2027 and 15,500 USD/t by end June 2027, implying a steady step up in prices as the market deficit deepens. UBS Global Research has separately lifted its medium term deck to 6.0 USD/lb (13,200 USD/t, 13.2 USD/kg) for 2027–29 and its long term incentive price to 5.50 USD/lb (about 12,100 USD/t, 12.1 USD/kg), arguing that this is the level required to bring through 6–7 Mt of new mine supply by 2035.\n\n**Supply, demand and inventories**\n\nUBS continues to project a refined copper market deficit of about 520,000 t in 2026, widening from an estimated 203,000 t deficit in 2025. On the demand side, global copper consumption is expected to grow by around 2.8% in 2026, led by grid investment, EVs, renewables and continued build out of data centres. UBS’s global work highlights that end use growth of 2–3% per year on a 35 Mt demand base requires 700–1,050 kt of new copper annually—well ahead of the 1% mine supply growth expected for 2026.\n\nRefined supply is still being supported by strong Chinese smelter output and growing scrap utilisation, even as the concentrate market tightens sharply. UBS estimates global refined production growth of about 1.7% in 2026, implying that inventories will only start to trend lower as deficits accumulate in 2027–28.\n\nInventory trends remain divergent across regions. SHFE tracked copper stocks in Shanghai have fallen by roughly 178,500 t since end March as Chinese buyers restocked on earlier price weakness and seasonal demand from the power sector kicked in. By contrast, COMEX inventories have risen by roughly 38,000 t since late Q1 and now sit around record levels near 570,000 t, reflecting pre emptive US restocking ahead of possible 2027–28 tariffs on refined copper. LME on warrant stocks have climbed by about 35,000 t this year to near 400,000 t but have flattened out in recent weeks, leaving global visible inventories close to 1.2–1.25 Mt, or about 2.5 weeks of consumption.\n\n**Geopolitics, war and policy**\n\nThe Middle East conflict and the risk of renewed disruption in and around the Strait of Hormuz remain key macro overlays for copper, but so far they have not derailed the structural bull case. UBS notes that energy price volatility and heightened defence and infrastructure spending are, if anything, reinforcing the need for grid and renewable investment—both copper intensive sectors—even as they dampen parts of traditional manufacturing demand.\n\nUS trade policy is more immediately material for physical market flows. UBS CIO highlights that COMEX LME spreads have widened back out to around 200 USD/t, but remain insufficient on their own to redirect large volumes to the US given logistics and quality constraints. The US Department of Commerce is due to update its Section 232 recommendations by 30 June, following earlier proposals for phased tariffs on imported refined copper of 15% in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028; Bloomberg notes that the premium for US prices over the rest of the world has already expanded in anticipation.\n\nFurther out, UBS expects a more supportive permitting and fiscal environment for large copper projects in countries such as Chile, Argentina, the US and parts of Africa, but stresses that approvals remain well below what is needed to close the projected 6–7 Mt supply gap by 2035. This underpins their view—and that of other analysts cited in the Financial Times, Economist and CRU coverage—that copper will remain strategically tight even if cyclical headwinds emerge.\n\n**Implications for mining companies**\n\nFor existing producers, the current price environment remains highly cash generative. UBS’s Australia copper report calculates that its upgraded price deck for 2027–28 (6.0 USD/lb) lifts 2026–28 earnings by roughly 2–13% across ASX copper names and by up to 20% in some cases. On UBS estimates, copper now accounts for more than 50% of BHP’s FY27 EBITDA and around 30% for Rio Tinto, while pure play and copper leaning mid tiers such as Capstone and Sandfire trade at a premium EV/EBITDA multiple relative to diversified miners and gold producers.\n\nThe same report underscores the capital intensity challenge. UBS, using Wood Mackenzie data, puts average capex intensity for upcoming projects at roughly 26,500 USD per annual tonne of capacity, up sharply on earlier cycles, with multiple greenfield projects implying even higher costs. Their global analysis suggests that around 175 billion USD in real capex will be required by 2035 to deliver sufficient new copper supply, even after factoring in rising scrap recovery and incremental throughput at brownfield operations.\n\nFor Australian operations specifically, UBS reiterates that copper remains at the centre of this mining cycle, with domestic names positioned to benefit both from higher realized prices and from growing investor preference for “copper heavy” portfolios. However, they also flag execution risk around large expansions and the importance of discipline in bringing high capex projects such as Olympic Dam’s staged growth and South Australian hub developments to market.\n\n\n**Supply, demand and price metrics (USD/t and USD/kg)**\n\nUsing current and forecast benchmarks, the key reference points are:\n\n•\tSpot LME (early–mid June): about 13,500–13,700 USD/t, equivalent to 13.5–13.7 USD/kg.\n\n•\tCOMEX (11 June close via Trading Economics/MarketWatch): around 6.37 USD/lb, or roughly 14,050 USD/t (14.05 USD/kg).\n\n•\tUBS CIO forecasts (LME):\n•\tSep 2026: 14,000 USD/t (14.0 USD/kg)\n•\tDec 2026: 14,500 USD/t (14.5 USD/kg)\n•\tMar 2027: 15,000 USD/t (15.0 USD/kg)\n•\tJun 2027: 15,500 USD/t (15.5 USD/kg).\n\n•\tUBS long term incentive price: 5.50 USD/lb ≈ 12,125 USD/t (12.1 USD/kg).\n\nThese price levels remain well above Wood Mackenzie’s estimate of the 90th–95th percentile fully loaded cost curve (around 3.5–4.0 USD/lb), meaning most incumbent mines are generating strong margins while new projects still require careful capital allocation.\n\n**ConnectOre and ICAA initiatives**\n\nFor industry participants trying to navigate this “higher for longer” copper environment, ConnectOre and the ICAA’s broader work program continue to provide practical, collaborative tools.\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital platform that aggregates technology insights, project case studies and emerging research from across the copper value chain, with a particular focus on zero emissions mining and processing solutions. By combining member contributed knowledge with its Copper AI engine, the platform is designed to shorten the cycle between innovation, deployment and measurable emissions reductions at mine and plant level.\nGo to https://connectore.org \n\n"},"openGraph":{"title":null,"description":{"plain":"Copper continues its strong growth in demand and pricing forecast\n"},"image":{"thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1781225536/copper-connect/banner/copper-weekly-brief-12-06-2026_image__Copper_weekly_brief-_12062026_hrvqbu.png"}}}},"intro":{"plain":"Copper continues its strong growth in demand and pricing forecast\n","text":"Copper continues its strong growth in demand and pricing forecast"},"outro":{"id":"6a2b58a2d69c8954b7bc535e_outro","text":""},"videos":[],"imageAssets":[],"organisations":[],"people":[],"embeds":{"citations":[],"pages":[],"people":[],"imageAssets":[]},"banners":[{"id":"6a2b5875d69c8954b7bc535b","name":"Copper weekly brief 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":null,"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-04-21T01:12:58.42","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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