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    "result": {"data":{"platform":{"post":{"id":"6aa37d929ee7d0cbff3717f8","name":"Copper Weekly Brief - 11th September 2026","slug":"copper-weekly-brief-11-th-september-2026","typeLabel":"Industry Briefing","badge":null,"path":"/posts/copper-weekly-brief-11-th-september-2026","updated":"2026-09-11T04:03:30.15","__typename":"Platform_Post","_schema":{"label":"Post","pluralLabel":"Posts"},"title":"Copper Weekly Brief - 11th September 2026","pretitle":null,"subtitle":null,"published":"2026-09-11T00:00:00.00","content":{"plain":"Market Overview\nCopper set fresh records this week before retreating sharply as doubts emerged over the US tariff plan that has distorted global inventories and pricing.\nLME three-month copper broke January’s previous high on Monday, reached US$14,779/t on Tuesday and touched US$14,875/t early on Thursday. It then fell 3.1% to US$14,312/t after Reuters reported that the White House had yet to finalise its Section 232 decision on refined copper tariffs. COMEX October futures fell 4.2% to US$6.5355/lb, or about US$14,408/t, after trading above US$6.87/lb earlier in the week.\nDespite the volatility, the LME cash settlement was broadly unchanged: US$14,390/t on Thursday versus US$14,371/t a week earlier. Copper remains up about 16% year to date and roughly 40% year on year.\nPolicy Takes Centre Stage\nThe proposed US tariff — reportedly 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028 — remains the market’s dominant near-term variable. The Commerce Department’s recommendation was due on 30 June, but a decision remains outstanding.\nThe policy dilemma is clear. The US imports about half of its refined copper requirements and has only two operating smelters. A tariff could support domestic mining and processing, but it would also raise costs for US manufacturers and add to inflation pressures ahead of the November midterm elections.\nThursday’s reversal showed how much of the recent rally has been tied to the tariff trade rather than an immediate change in underlying consumption.\nInventories and Physical Market\nAnticipated tariffs have drawn exceptional volumes of copper into the United States. COMEX warehouse stocks rose to a record 696,259 tonnes this week, while LME inventories were near 235,000 tonnes and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell to about 63,000 tonnes, their lowest level since January 2024.\nThe result is a highly uneven physical market: ample copper is held in the US, while visible inventories elsewhere remain constrained. The LME cash-to-three-month premium narrowed from its mid-August peak of US$436/t to US$41/t on Thursday and briefly moved into a discount.\nIf tariffs do not proceed, the large US inventory build could weigh on the market for an extended period. If they do proceed, reduced availability outside the US could intensify the physical squeeze.\nDemand Signals Mixed\nHigh prices are beginning to restrain Chinese buying. China imported 382,000 tonnes of unwrought copper in August, down from 425,000 tonnes in July and the weakest August result in six years. January–August imports of 3.3 million tonnes were 6.7% below the same period last year.\nThat caution reflects price sensitivity rather than a breakdown in the longer-term demand story. Grid investment, renewable generation, electric vehicles, data centres and electrification continue to provide a strong structural base for copper demand.\nChile’s August copper export revenue fell 14% month on month to US$4.62 billion as winter weather disrupted mine and port operations. Copper equities also sold off sharply after the tariff report, with Freeport-McMoRan down 8% and Southern Copper and Teck about 7% lower.\nSupply Constraints Persist\nThis week highlighted the difference between short-term policy speculation and the longer-term supply outlook. The move to record prices was driven principally by tariff positioning and inventory relocation. The underlying support for copper, however, remains rooted in constrained mine supply.\nMorgan Stanley expects global mine supply to be flat to slightly lower in 2026 — potentially the first annual decline since 2017. ICSG data showed mined output down 1.1% and concentrate output down 2.6% in the first half, with disruptions affecting major producing regions including Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.\nTreatment and refining charges remain at or below zero, reflecting pressure on smelter economics. Major new supply additions from Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Andes Norte are not expected to materially affect the market until 2028–29.\nMarket Outlook\nThe market is likely to remain volatile until the US tariff decision is resolved and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting provides further direction on rates and the dollar.\nA decision to shelve tariffs could unwind part of the COMEX premium and expose copper to a pullback towards the US$13,600–14,100/t range. Conversely, tariffs could produce another sharp spike by further tightening availability outside the United States.\nThe medium-term outlook nevertheless remains constructive. Copper’s supply pipeline remains limited, grades are declining at mature operations and demand from electrification infrastructure continues to grow.\nOrganisation    Outlook    Key driver\nGoldman Sachs    US$13,735/t at end-2026; about US$13,800/t average in 2027    ....Lower mine supply; US stockpiling\nMorgan Stanley    About 600,000t deficit in 2026......    Mine disruptions; tariff-related flows\nWood Mackenzie    US$13,200–13,800/t    .....Supply disruption; electrification demand\nCRU    At best, a balanced market outside US stocks    US import pull; smelter cuts\nCiti    US$15,000/t year-end; US$17,000/t .....upside case    Supply constraints; AI and grid demand\nTrading Economics    About US$14,640/t in Q3; US$15,960/t over 12 months....    Tariff front-loading; sulphur supply\nConnectOre\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital knowledge platform, connecting technology, research and practical industry insight across the copper value chain.\nAs supply chains tighten and project execution becomes more difficult, collaboration on zero-emission mining, processing efficiency, automation, water, tailings and sustainability will be increasingly important to delivering the copper needed for electrification.\nGo to: connectore.org\nSources\nReuters Commodities Desk, including White House copper tariff plan stalls amid affordability concerns, 10 September 2026; Bloomberg Commodities & Metals, 7–11 September 2026; Trading Economics; LME and COMEX market and warehouse data; ICSG; Goldman Sachs Research; Morgan Stanley Research; CRU; Wood Mackenzie; Citi; Macquarie; Jefferies; Saxo Bank; SP Angel; MINING.com; Australian Financial Review; Financial Times; and ICAA Copper Weekly Brief, Week Ending 4 September 2026.\n","text":"**Market Overview**\n\nCopper set fresh records this week before retreating sharply as doubts emerged over the US tariff plan that has distorted global inventories and pricing.\n\nLME three-month copper broke January’s previous high on Monday, reached US$14,779/t on Tuesday and touched US$14,875/t early on Thursday. It then fell 3.1% to US$14,312/t after Reuters reported that the White House had yet to finalise its Section 232 decision on refined copper tariffs. COMEX October futures fell 4.2% to US$6.5355/lb, or about US$14,408/t, after trading above US$6.87/lb earlier in the week.\n\nDespite the volatility, the LME cash settlement was broadly unchanged: US$14,390/t on Thursday versus US$14,371/t a week earlier. Copper remains up about 16% year to date and roughly 40% year on year.\n\n**Policy Takes Centre Stage**\n\nThe proposed US tariff — reportedly 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028 — remains the market’s dominant near-term variable. The Commerce Department’s recommendation was due on 30 June, but a decision remains outstanding.\n\nThe policy dilemma is clear. The US imports about half of its refined copper requirements and has only two operating smelters. A tariff could support domestic mining and processing, but it would also raise costs for US manufacturers and add to inflation pressures ahead of the November midterm elections.\n\nThursday’s reversal showed how much of the recent rally has been tied to the tariff trade rather than an immediate change in underlying consumption.\n\n**Inventories and Physical Market**\n\nAnticipated tariffs have drawn exceptional volumes of copper into the United States. COMEX warehouse stocks rose to a record 696,259 tonnes this week, while LME inventories were near 235,000 tonnes and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell to about 63,000 tonnes, their lowest level since January 2024.\n\nThe result is a highly uneven physical market: ample copper is held in the US, while visible inventories elsewhere remain constrained. The LME cash-to-three-month premium narrowed from its mid-August peak of US$436/t to US$41/t on Thursday and briefly moved into a discount.\n\nIf tariffs do not proceed, the large US inventory build could weigh on the market for an extended period. If they do proceed, reduced availability outside the US could intensify the physical squeeze.\n\n**Demand Signals Mixed**\n\nHigh prices are beginning to restrain Chinese buying. China imported 382,000 tonnes of unwrought copper in August, down from 425,000 tonnes in July and the weakest August result in six years. January–August imports of 3.3 million tonnes were 6.7% below the same period last year.\n\nThat caution reflects price sensitivity rather than a breakdown in the longer-term demand story. Grid investment, renewable generation, electric vehicles, data centres and electrification continue to provide a strong structural base for copper demand.\n\nChile’s August copper export revenue fell 14% month on month to US$4.62 billion as winter weather disrupted mine and port operations. Copper equities also sold off sharply after the tariff report, with Freeport-McMoRan down 8% and Southern Copper and Teck about 7% lower.\n\n**Supply Constraints Persist**\n\nThis week highlighted the difference between short-term policy speculation and the longer-term supply outlook. The move to record prices was driven principally by tariff positioning and inventory relocation. The underlying support for copper, however, remains rooted in constrained mine supply.\n\nMorgan Stanley expects global mine supply to be flat to slightly lower in 2026 — potentially the first annual decline since 2017. ICSG data showed mined output down 1.1% and concentrate output down 2.6% in the first half, with disruptions affecting major producing regions including Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.\n\nTreatment and refining charges remain at or below zero, reflecting pressure on smelter economics. Major new supply additions from Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Andes Norte are not expected to materially affect the market until 2028–29.\n\n**Market Outlook**\n\nThe market is likely to remain volatile until the US tariff decision is resolved and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting provides further direction on rates and the dollar.\n\nA decision to shelve tariffs could unwind part of the COMEX premium and expose copper to a pullback towards the US$13,600–14,100/t range. Conversely, tariffs could produce another sharp spike by further tightening availability outside the United States.\n\nThe medium-term outlook nevertheless remains constructive. Copper’s supply pipeline remains limited, grades are declining at mature operations and demand from electrification infrastructure continues to grow.\n\n**Organisation\tOutlook\tKey driver**\n\nGoldman Sachs\tUS$13,735/t at end-2026; about US$13,800/t average in 2027\t....Lower mine supply; US stockpiling\nMorgan Stanley\tAbout 600,000t deficit in 2026......\tMine disruptions; tariff-related flows\nWood Mackenzie\tUS$13,200–13,800/t\t.....Supply disruption; electrification demand\nCRU\tAt best, a balanced market outside US stocks\tUS import pull; smelter cuts\nCiti\tUS$15,000/t year-end; US$17,000/t .....upside case\tSupply constraints; AI and grid demand\nTrading Economics\tAbout US$14,640/t in Q3; US$15,960/t over 12 months....\tTariff front-loading; sulphur supply\n\n**ConnectOre**\n\nConnectOre is ICAA’s digital knowledge platform, connecting technology, research and practical industry insight across the copper value chain.\nAs supply chains tighten and project execution becomes more difficult, collaboration on zero-emission mining, processing efficiency, automation, water, tailings and sustainability will be increasingly important to delivering the copper needed for electrification.\nGo to: connectore.org\n\n\n**Sources**\n\nReuters Commodities Desk, including White House copper tariff plan stalls amid affordability concerns, 10 September 2026; Bloomberg Commodities & Metals, 7–11 September 2026; Trading Economics; LME and COMEX market and warehouse data; ICSG; Goldman Sachs Research; Morgan Stanley Research; CRU; Wood Mackenzie; Citi; Macquarie; Jefferies; Saxo Bank; SP Angel; MINING.com; Australian Financial Review; Financial Times; and ICAA Copper Weekly Brief, Week Ending 4 September 2026.\n"},"openGraph":{"title":"Copper Weekly Brief - 11th September 2026","description":{"plain":"Copper Weekly Brief - Week ending 11th September 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All Rights Reserved\n"},"creator":null,"poweredBy":{"id":"65d2edadebf7bb9388ffafc8","name":"Shapeable","slug":"shapeable","url":"https://shapeable.ai","logo":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1674010034/platform/organisation/shapeable_logo__shapeable.png","type":"image/png","width":1174,"height":368},"logoInverted":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1729474494/copper-connect/organisation/shapeable_logoInverted__shapeable-logo-inverted_sdcfpk.png","type":"image/png","width":392,"height":118},"logoSubtle":null},"poweredByLabel":null,"poweredByContent":{"text":""},"explorerPage":{"name":"Explorer","title":null,"slug":"explorer","path":"/explorer"},"termsPage":{"name":"Terms of Use","title":null,"slug":"terms-of-use","path":"/terms-of-use"},"homePage":null,"knowledgeHubPage":{"name":"News","title":null,"slug":"news","path":"/news"},"privacyPolicyPage":{"name":"Privacy Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"ConnectOre","date":"2026-07-31T04:44:47.80","description":{"plain":"A platform to accelerate industry-wide innovation through collective intelligence and collaborative action\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1713942350/copper-connect/site/copper-connect_thumbnail__site-thumb_bmicl8.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At ConnectOre we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. ConnectOre is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of ConnectOre contractors and partners doing business on behalf of ConnectOre, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by ConnectOre.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nConnectOre collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in ConnectOre events and activities \n  * Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nConnectOre uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. ConnectOre may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate ConnectOre supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. ConnectOre may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. ConnectOre may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in ConnectOre activities. ConnectOre will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain ConnectOre activities such as ConnectOre Summit, authoring or reviewing a ConnectOre article, or ConnectOre humanitarian activities. ConnectOre may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities. ConnectOre may communicate with you regarding relevant ConnectOre events and opportunities.\n  * To protect ConnectOre content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for ConnectOre Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to john.fennell@copper.com.au specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nConnectOre does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nConnectOre may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nConnectOre automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, ConnectOre may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting ConnectOre's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on ConnectOre's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. ConnectOre uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nConnectOre also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on ConnectOre's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. ConnectOre provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving ConnectOre domain, and ConnectOre's information management policies no longer apply. ConnectOre encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. ConnectOre uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to ConnectOre, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all ConnectOre web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on ConnectOre website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nConnectOre reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nConnectOre complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to john.fennell@copper.com.au with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that ConnectOre reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at john.fennell@copper.com.au"},"welcomeUrl":"https://connectore.org/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to ConnectOre and thanks for joining us! 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